TORONTO–(BUSINESS WIRE)–DREAM IMPACT TRUST (TSX: MPCT.UN) (“Dream Impact”, “we”, “our” or the “Trust”) today reported its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022 (“third quarter”).
For the second consecutive year, the Trust is pleased to achieve a five-star rating from GRESB, the Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark, which is recognition of its placement in the top 20% global benchmark with an overall score of 88/100. The Trust’s score can be attributed to excellent performance in Leadership, Policies, Reporting, Targets and, Data Monitoring and Review. Annual participation in the GRESB assessment provides the Trust with the opportunity for a third-party assessment of our continued progress towards achieving the Trust’s impact/ESG related goals. Further details on specific ESG metrics will be disclosed as part of our 2021 Sustainability Update report, which will be published in November.
“We are pleased with the Trust’s steady progress to create a more resilient portfolio,” said Michael Cooper, Portfolio Manager. “As we add an additional 210 multi-family units to our recurring income segment in the quarter, and construction continues on our 1,863-unit rental buildings in the West Don Lands, we believe we are well positioned to weather ongoing market disruptions by investing in high-quality assets, and contributing meaningfully to important societal issues. While our pace of external acquisitions may slow in the near term, with the largest portfolio of net-zero development and our extensive residential pipeline, we have tremendous internal growth.”
Selected financial and operating metrics for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022, are summarized below:
Three months ended September 30,
Nine months ended September 30,
2022
2021
2022
2021
Condensed consolidated results of operations
Net income (loss)
$
337
$
2,154
$
1,309
$
(5,509)
Net income (loss) per unit(1)
0.01
0.03
0.02
(0.08)
Distributions declared and paid per unit
0.10
0.10
0.30
0.30
Units outstanding – end of period
66,094,687
64,939,362
66,094,687
64,939,362
Units outstanding – weighted average
65,982,734
65,066,259
65,637,245
64,934,850
During the three months ended September 30, 2022, the Trust reported net income of $0.3 million compared to net income of $2.2 million in the prior year. The change in earnings was primarily driven by timing of fair value adjustments on our income properties and developments, upon milestone achievements, as well as higher interest expense. This was partially offset by the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations on the Trust’s investment in the U.S. hotel.
As at September 30, 2022, the Trust had $9.0 million of cash-on-hand, which included unused proceeds from the Trust’s convertible debenture issuance. The Trust’s debt-to-asset value(1) as at September 30, 2022 was 27.3%, an increase relative to 25.7% as of June 30, 2022, primarily due to draws on the credit facility. For similar reasons, the Trust’s debt-to-total asset value, inclusive of project-level debt(1) and assets within our development segment, including equity accounted investments, was 60.0% as at September 30, 2022, compared to 57.4% as at June 30, 2022. This includes long-term government debt at low interest rates and high leverage, providing financial benefits that help us pay for the social benefits we provide, including our affordable housing and sustainability programs within our communities. As at September 30, 2022, the Trust had drawn $24.8 million on its $50.0 million credit facility.
As part of the Trust’s ongoing risk management practices, the Trust monitors the impact of macroeconomic factors on the business. This includes assessing the impact of cost escalations on operations and construction projects, and the impact of rising interest rates on our portfolio. We continue to monitor our capital allocation on an ongoing basis, pursue refinancing opportunities which mitigate interest rate risk, and tender a significant portion of development costs prior to construction commencement which helps contain inflationary risk.
Recurring Income
In the third quarter, the Trust’s recurring income segment generated net income of $1.2 million, consistent with prior year, although the composition of earnings differed in each period due to transaction costs, fair value adjustments and occupancy rates across the portfolio.
Throughout the period, we have continued to see strong leasing momentum across our multi-family rental buildings, ending the quarter with in-place and committed residential occupancy at 93.5% as of September 30, 2022, up from 82.5% as of June 30, 2022. Notably, Aalto Suites, a 162-unit multi-family rental building at Zibi, ended the quarter with in-place and committed occupancy at 74.7%, up from 34.6% at June 30, 2022. Aalto Suites has 95% of its units designated as affordable and we anticipate achieving stabilization for the asset in early 2023.
In the third quarter, the Trust acquired a 50% interest in 70 Park, a 210-unit multi-family rental building adjacent to the Port Credit GO station and in close proximity to the Trust’s Brightwater development. The gross purchase price for the site was $105.5 million (at 100%), of which approximately $25 million was allocated to land slated for redevelopment on the site. Inclusive of 70 Park, the Trust’s multi-family rental portfolio is comprised of nearly 1,600 units of which 25% are considered affordable.
Based on the Trust’s current development pipeline, we have an additional 2,826 residential units and 153,000 square feet (“sf”) of commercial and retail (at 100%) with an estimated value on completion of $508.5 million that will be completed and contribute to recurring income over the next three years. For further details, refer to the “Three-Year Recurring Income” table in Section 2.1, “Recurring Income”, in the Trust’s MD&A for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022.
Development
In the third quarter, the development segment generated net income of $2.9 million compared to $4.2 million in the prior period. The decrease relative to prior year was driven by fair value gains recognized in 2021 within the Trust’s equity accounted investments, partially offset by higher foreign exchange gains on the Trust’s investment in the U.S. hotel this year.
In the period, we completed the acquisition of the Berkeley land assembly, which comprises five income properties adjacent to the Trust’s commercial asset, 49 Ontario, located in downtown Toronto. Inclusive of one property purchased in 2021, the Berkeley land assembly was purchased for $16.9 million, including transaction costs. The Trust has submitted a rezoning application for over 800,000 sf for this site and expects rezoning to be achieved by 2023. As of September 30, 2022, 49 Ontario was carried at $95.0 million per the Trust’s financial statements.
Other(2)
In the third quarter, the Other segment generated a net loss of $3.8 million compared to $3.3 million in the prior year. The increase was primarily driven by interest expense on the Trust’s convertible debentures and credit facility. Partially offsetting this was a deferred compensation recovery and decrease in the asset management fee as a result of fluctuations in the Trust’s share price.
Cash Generated from Operating Activities
Cash generated in operating activities for the three months ended September 30, 2022 was $1.5 million compared to cash generated of $4.3 million in the prior year, a decrease driven by proceeds received from a legacy development in the prior year and timing of deposits made on the Trust’s acquisitions.
Footnotes
(1)
For the Trust’s definition of the following specified financial measures: debt-to-asset value, debt-to-total asset value, inclusive of project-level debt, net income (loss) per unit, please refer to the cautionary statements under the heading “Specified Financial Measures and Other Measures” in this press release and the Specified Financial Measures and Other Disclosures section of the Trust’s MD&A.
(2)
Includes other Trust amounts not specifically related to the segments.
Conference Call
Senior management will host a conference call on Thursday November 3 at 2:00 pm (ET). To access the call, please dial 1-866-455-3403 in Canada or 647-484-8332 elsewhere and use passcode 24662328#. To access the conference call via webcast, please go to the Trust’s website at www.dreamimpacttrust.ca and click on Calendar of Events in the News and Events section. A taped replay of the conference call and the webcast will be available for 90 days.
About Dream Impact
Dream Impact is an open-ended trust dedicated to impact investing. Dream Impact’s underlying portfolio is comprised of exceptional real estate assets reported under two operating segments: development and investment holdings, and recurring income, that would not be otherwise available in a public and fully transparent vehicle, managed by an experienced team with a successful track record in these areas. The objectives of Dream Impact are to create positive and lasting impacts for our stakeholders through our three impact verticals: environmental sustainability and resilience, attainable and affordable housing, and inclusive communities; while generating attractive returns for investors. For more information, please visit: www.dreamimpacttrust.ca.
Specified Financial Measures and Other Measures
The Trust’s condensed consolidated financial statements are prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”). In this press release, as a complement to results provided in accordance with IFRS, the Trust discloses and discusses certain specified financial measures, including debt-to-asset value, debt-to-total asset value inclusive of project-level debt, and net income (loss) per unit, as well as other measures discussed elsewhere in this release. These specified financial measures are not defined by IFRS, do not have a standardized meaning and may not be comparable with similar measures presented by other issuers. The Trust has presented such specified financial measures as management believes they are relevant measures of our underlying operating performance and debt management. Specified financial measures should not be considered as alternatives to unitholders’ equity, net income, total comprehensive income or cash flows generated from operating activities, or comparable metrics determined in accordance with IFRS as indicators of the Trust’s performance, liquidity, cash flow and profitability. For a full description of these measures and, where applicable, a reconciliation to the most directly comparable measure calculated in accordance with IFRS, please refer to Section 6, “Specified Financial Measures and Other Disclosures” in the Trust’s MD&A for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022.
“Debt-to-asset value” represents the total debt payable for the Trust divided by the total asset value of the Trust as at the applicable reporting date. This non-GAAP ratio is an important measure in evaluating the amount of debt leverage; however, it is not defined by IFRS, does not have a standardized meaning, and may not be comparable with similar measures presented by other issuers.
As at
September 30, 2022
December 31, 2021
Total debt
$
203,585
$
133,150
Unamortized discount on host instrument of convertible debentures
1,152
809
Conversion feature
(345)
(357)
Unamortized balance of deferred financing costs
3,023
1,300
Total debt payable
$
207,415
$
134,902
Total assets
760,203
701,702
Debt-to-asset value
27.3%
19.2%
“Debt-to-total asset value, inclusive of project-level debt” represents the Trust’s total debt payable plus the debt payable within our development and investment holdings, and equity accounted investments, divided by the total asset value of the Trust plus the debt payable within our development and investment holdings, and equity accounted investments, as at the applicable reporting date. This specified financial measure is an important measure in evaluating the amount of debt leverage inclusive of project-level debt within our development and investment holdings, and equity accounted investments; however, it is not defined by IFRS, does not have a standardized meaning, and may not be comparable with similar measures presented by other issuers.
September 30, 2022
December 31, 2021
Debt payable within our development and investment holdings, and equity accounted investments
$
622,683
$
493,217
Total assets
760,203
701,702
Total assets, inclusive of project-level debt
$
1,382,886
$
1,194,919
Debt payable within our development and investment holdings, and equity accounted investments
$
622,683
$
493,217
Total debt payable
207,415
134,902
Total debt, inclusive of project-level debt
$
830,098
$
628,119
Debt-to-total asset value, inclusive of project-level debt and assets within our development segment, including equity
accounted investments
60.0%
52.6%
“Net income (loss) per unit” represents net income (loss) of the Trust divided by the weighted average number of units outstanding during the period.
Three months ended September 30,
Nine months ended September 30,
2022
2021
2022
2021
Net income (loss)
$
337
$
2,154
$
1,309
$
(5,509)
Units outstanding – weighted average
65,982,734
65,066,259
65,637,245
64,934,850
Net income (loss) per unit
$
0.01
$
0.03
$
0.02
$
(0.08)
Forward-Looking Information
This press release may contain forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking information generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “outlook”, “objective”, “may”, “will”, “would”, “could”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “should”, “plans”, or “continue”, or similar expressions suggesting future outcomes or events. Some of the specific forward-looking information in this press release may include, among other things, statements relating to the Trust’s objectives and strategies to achieve those objectives; the publication and details of the 2021 Sustainability Update Report; the resiliency of the Trust’s portfolio; the belief that the Trust is well positioned to withstand market disruptions by investing in high-quality assets; the expectation that external acquisitions may slow in the near term; the Trust’s internal growth potential; the expectation that long-term government debt at low interest rates will provide certain financial benefits; the Trust’s ongoing monitoring of capital allocation, pursuit of refinancing opportunities to mitigate interest rate risks, and tender significant portions of development costs prior to construction commencement to contain inflationary risk; the Trust’s ability to execute on transactions and successfully navigate markets; expected growth of the Trust’s recurring income segment; our development and redevelopment pipeline; expectations regarding rezoning applications and related square footage and finalization dates, including in respect of the Berkeley land assembly; the Trust’s ability to achieve its impact and sustainability goals, and implementing other sustainability initiatives throughout its projects; and the 2,826 residential units and 153,000 sf of commercial and retail (at 100%) with an estimated value upon completion of $508.5 million which are expected to be completed and contribute to recurring income over the next three years.
Forward-looking information is based on a number of assumptions and is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the Trust’s control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those that are disclosed in or implied by such forward-looking information. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: adverse changes in general economic and market conditions; the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19 and variants thereof) pandemic on the Trust; risks associated with unexpected or ongoing geopolitical events, including disputes between nations, terrorism or other acts of violence, and international sanctions; inflation; the disruption of free movement of goods and services across jurisdictions; the risk of adverse global market, economic and political conditions and health crises; risks inherent in the real estate industry; risks relating to investment in development projects; impact investing strategy risk; risks relating to geographic concentration; risks inherent in investments in real estate, mortgages and other loans and development and investment holdings; credit risk and counterparty risk; competition risks; environmental and climate change risks; risks relating to access to capital; interest rate risk; the risk of changes in governmental laws and regulations; tax risks; foreign exchange risk; acquisitions risk; and leasing risks. Our objectives and forward-looking statements are based on certain assumptions with respect to each of our markets, including that the general economy remains stable; the gradual recovery and growth of the general economy continues over 2022; that no unforeseen changes in the legislative and operating framework for our business will occur; that there will be no material change to environmental regulations that may adversely impact our business; that we will meet our future objectives, priorities and growth targets; that we receive the licenses, permits or approvals necessary in connection with our projects; that we will have access to adequate capital to fund our future projects, plans and any potential acquisitions; that we are able to identify high quality investment opportunities and find suitable partners with which to enter into joint ventures or partnerships; that we do not incur any material environmental liabilities; interest rates remain stable; inflation remains relatively low; there will not be a material change in foreign exchange rates; that the impact of the current economic climate and global financial conditions on our operations will remain consistent with our current expectations; our expectations regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and government measures to contain it; our expectation regarding ongoing remote working arrangements; and competition for and availability of acquisitions remains consistent with the current climate.
All forward-looking information in this press release speaks as of October 31, 2022. The Trust does not undertake to update any such forward-looking information whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. Additional information about these assumptions and risks and uncertainties is disclosed in the Trust’s filings with securities regulators filed on the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval (www.sedar.com), including its latest annual information form and MD&A. These filings are also available at the Trust’s website at www.dreamimpacttrust.ca.
The U.S. economy grew slowly over the summer, adding to fears of a looming recession — but also keeping alive the hope that one might be avoided.
Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, returned to growth in the third quarter after two consecutive quarterly contractions, according to government data released Thursday. But consumer spending slowed as inflation ate away at households’ buying power, and the sharp rise in interest rates led to the steepest contraction in the housing sector since the first months of the pandemic.
The report underscored the delicate balance facing the Federal Reserve as it tries to rein in the fastest inflation in four decades. Policymakers have aggressively raised interest rates in recent months — and are expected to do so again at their meeting next week — in an effort to cool off red-hot demand, which they believe has contributed to the rapid increase in prices. But they are trying to do so without snuffing out the recovery entirely.
The third-quarter data — G.D.P. rose 0.6 percent, the Commerce Department said, a 2.6 percent annual rate of growth — suggested that the path to such a “soft landing” remained open, but narrow.
loss of purchasing power over time, meaning your dollar will not go as far tomorrow as it did today. It is typically expressed as the annual change in prices for everyday goods and services such as food, furniture, apparel, transportation and toys.
What causes inflation? It can be the result of rising consumer demand. But inflation can also rise and fall based on developments that have little to do with economic conditions, such as limited oil production and supply chain problems.
Is inflation bad? It depends on the circumstances. Fast price increases spell trouble, but moderate price gains can lead to higher wages and job growth.
Can inflation affect the stock market? Rapid inflation typically spells trouble for stocks. Financial assets in general have historically fared badly during inflation booms, while tangible assets like houses have held their value better.
President Biden cheered the report in a statement Thursday morning. “For months, doomsayers have been arguing that the U.S. economy is in a recession, and congressional Republicans have been rooting for a downturn,” he said. “But today we got further evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward.”
By one common definition, the U.S. economy entered a recession when it experienced two straight quarters of shrinking G.D.P. at the start of the year. Officially, however, recessions are determined by a group of researchers at the National Bureau of Economic Research, who look at a broader array of indicators, including employment, income and spending.
Most analysts don’t believe the economy meets that more formal definition, and the third-quarter numbers — which slightly exceeded forecasters’ expectations — provided further evidence that a recession had not yet begun.
But the overall G.D.P. figures were skewed by the international trade component, which often exhibits big swings from one period to the next. Economists tend to focus on less volatile components, which have showed the recovery steadily losing momentum as the year has progressed. One closely watched measure suggested that private-sector demand stalled out almost completely in the third quarter.
Mortgage rates passed 7 percent on Thursday, their highest level since 2002.
“Housing is just the single largest trigger to additional spending, and it’s not there anymore; it’s going in reverse,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting firm KPMG. “This has been a stunning turnaround in housing, and when things start to go really quickly, you start to wonder, what are the knock-on effects, what are the spillover effects?”
The third quarter was in some sense a mirror image of the first quarter, when G.D.P. shrank but consumer spending was strong. In both cases, the swings were driven by international trade. Imports, which don’t count toward domestic production figures, soared early this year as the strong economic recovery led Americans to buy more goods from overseas. Exports slumped as the rest of the world recovered more slowly from the pandemic.
Both trends have begun to reverse as American consumers have shifted more of their spending toward services and away from imported goods, and as foreign demand for American-made goods has recovered. Supply-chain disruptions have added to the volatility, leading to big swings in the data from quarter to quarter.
Few economists expect the strong trade figures from the third quarter to continue, especially because the strong dollar will make American goods less attractive overseas.
IRVINE, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Impac Mortgage Holdings, Inc. (NYSE American: IMH) (the “Company”) today announced the completion of its previously announced offers to each holder of the Company’s 9.375% Series B Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share (“Series B Preferred Stock”) and each holder of the Company’s 9.125% Series C Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share (the “Series C Preferred Stock,” and together with the Series B Preferred Stock, the “Preferred Stock”) to exchange all outstanding shares of Preferred Stock for certain stock and warrant consideration (the “Exchange Offers”).
In conjunction with the closing of the Exchange Offers, the Company will issue approximately (A) (i) 6,142,213 shares of Common Stock and (ii) 13,823,340 shares of the Company’s 8.25% Series D Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share (the “New Preferred Stock”) in exchange for the shares of Series B Preferred Stock tendered in the Exchange Offer for the Series B Preferred Stock, and (B) (i) 1,188,106 shares of Common Stock, (ii) 950,471 shares of New Preferred Stock, and (iii) 1,425,695 Warrants to purchase the same number of shares of Common Stock in exchange for the shares of Series C Preferred Stock tendered in the Exchange Offer for the Series C Preferred Stock.
In addition, in connection with the petitions (the “Plaintiff Series B Award Motions”) for a court award of attorney’s fees, expenses or other monetary award to be deducted and paid from the Company’s payment of distributions or other payments to the holders of the Company’s Series B Preferred Stock in the matter Curtis J. Timm, et al. v Impac Mortgage Holdings, Inc. et al. (the “Maryland Action”), the Company will deposit, no later than November 2, 2022, approximately (i) 13,311,840 shares of New Preferred Stock and (ii) 4,437,280 shares of the Company’s Common Stock in the custody of a third party custodian or escrow agent (the “Escrow Shares”). The allocation of the Escrow Shares will be made by instruction from the Circuit Court of Baltimore City upon final disposition of all outstanding matters in the Maryland Action, including the Plaintiff Series B Award Motions.
D.F. King & Co., Inc. served as the Information Agent and Solicitation Agent for the Exchange Offers and the accompanying solicitation of consents from the holders of Preferred Stock, and American Stock Transfer & Trust Company, LLC served as the Exchange Agent.
This announcement is for informational purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to purchase or a solicitation of an offer to sell the shares of Preferred Stock, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of the Company’s Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share, warrants to purchase Common Stock, or shares of the Company’s 8.25% Series D Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share, or a solicitation of the related consents. The Exchange Offers were made only through, and pursuant to the terms and conditions set forth in, the Company’s Schedule TO, Prospectus/Consent Solicitation and related Letters of Transmittal and Consents.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements, some of which are based on various assumptions and events that are beyond our control, may be identified by reference to a future period or periods or by the use of forward-looking terminology, such as “may,” “capable,” “will,” “intends,” “believe,” “expect,” “likely,” “potentially,” “appear,” “should,” “could,” “seem to,” “anticipate,” “expectations,” “plan,” “ensure,” “desire,” or similar terms or variations on those terms or the negative of those terms. The forward-looking statements are based on current management expectations. Actual results may differ materially as a result of several factors, including, but not limited to the following: acceptance of a plan for regaining compliance with the NYSE American’s listed company standards; impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets due to the outbreak and continued effect of the COVID-19 pandemic; our ability to successfully consummate the contemplated exchange offers for our outstanding preferred stock and receive the requisite consents for the proposed amendments to our charter documents to facilitate the redemption from holders of our outstanding preferred stock who do not participate in the exchange offers; any adverse impact or disruption to the Company’s operations; changes in general economic and financial conditions (including federal monetary policy, interest rate changes, and inflation); increase in interest rates, inflation, and margin compression; ability to successfully sell aggregated loans to third-party investors; successful development, marketing, sale and financing of new and existing financial products, including NonQM products; recruit and hire talent to rebuild our TPO NonQM origination team, and increase NonQM originations; volatility in the mortgage industry; performance of third-party sub-servicers; our ability to manage personnel expenses in relation to mortgage production levels; our ability to successfully use warehousing capacity and satisfy financial covenants; our ability to maintain compliance with the continued listing requirements of the NYSE American for our common stock; increased competition in the mortgage lending industry by larger or more efficient companies; issues and system risks related to our technology; ability to successfully create cost and product efficiencies through new technology including cyber risk and data security risk; more than expected increases in default rates or loss severities and mortgage related losses; ability to obtain additional financing through lending and repurchase facilities, debt or equity funding, strategic relationships or otherwise; the terms of any financing, whether debt or equity, that we do obtain and our expected use of proceeds from any financing; increase in loan repurchase requests and ability to adequately settle repurchase obligations; failure to create brand awareness; the outcome of any claims we are subject to, including any settlements of litigation or regulatory actions pending against us or other legal contingencies; and compliance with applicable local, state and federal laws and regulations.
For a discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see our latest Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q we file with the SEC and in particular the discussion of “Risk Factors” therein. This document speaks only as of its date and we do not undertake, and expressly disclaim any obligation, to release publicly the results of any revisions that may be made to any forward-looking statements to reflect the occurrence of anticipated or unanticipated events or circumstances after the date of such statements except as required by law.
About the Company
Impac Mortgage Holdings, Inc. (IMH or Impac) provides innovative mortgage lending and real estate solutions that address the challenges of today’s economic environment. Impac’s operations include mortgage lending, servicing, portfolio loss mitigation, real estate services, and the management of the securitized long-term mortgage portfolio, which includes the residual interests in securitizations.
For additional information, questions or comments, please call Justin Moisio, Chief Administrative Officer at (949) 475-3988 or email Justin.Moisio@ImpacMail.com.
Website: http://ir.impaccompanies.com or www.impaccompanies.com
The fall of Liz Truss, Britain’s prime minister for just six tumultuous weeks, has plunged the nation into another phase of economic uncertainty.
When Ms. Truss announced her resignation on Thursday as Conservative Party leader, saying she would stand down as prime minister, the markets that had rebelled against her fiscal policies engaged in a weak and short-lived rally. Investors were left wondering who would be the new leader and what lay ahead for Britain’s economic policy. On Friday morning, government bonds were falling, pushing yields higher, and the pound was dropping.
“It’s a leap into the unknown,” said Antoine Bouvet, an interest rates strategist at ING.
Overall the initial reaction, Mr. Bouvet added, suggested that investors expect that a new prime minister will go ahead with fiscal plans generally supported by the market. But he said it was too early to be sure.
“Let’s see who gets elected leader and what they say on fiscal policy,” he said.
The next prime minister, the third this year, will face a long list of economic challenges. Annual inflation topped 10 percent last month as food prices rose at their fastest pace in more than 40 years. Wages haven’t kept up with rising prices, bringing about a cost-of-living crisis and labor unrest. There is a deepening slump in consumer spending with data on Friday showing people were buying less than before the pandemic. Interest rates are set to rise even as the economy stagnates. And Russia’s war in Ukraine is still rippling through the global economy, especially the energy market.
provoked extraordinary volatility in markets at the end of September when her first chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, announced a plan for widespread tax cuts and huge spending, to be financed by borrowing. Amid the highest inflation in four decades and rising interest rates, markets deemed the plan, delivered without any independent assessment, a rupture in Britain’s reputation for fiscal credibility. The pound dropped to a record low, and government bond yields shot up so violently the central bank was forced to intervene to stop a crisis in the pension funds industry.
began to settle markets. However, bond yields remain noticeably higher than they were before the September tax plan was announced, as investors still demand a higher premium to lend to Britain. On Thursday, 10-year government bond yields closed at 3.91 percent, up from 3.50 percent on Sept. 22, the day before Mr. Kwarteng’s policy announcement.
Ms. Truss’s tenure as prime minister, the shortest in British history, was undone by economic policies that harked back to the trickle-down economics of the 1980s, built on the belief that tax cuts for the wealthy were fair and would lead to investment and economic growth that would benefit everyone.
fixed rates have settled higher.
More on the Situation in Britain
Meanwhile, the new government is likely to be focused on restoring the government’s fiscal credibility. Mr. Hunt is set to deliver a “medium-term fiscal plan,” with spending and tax measures, on Oct. 31. He said he expected to make “difficult” spending cuts as he planned to show that debt levels were falling in the medium term.
It will be accompanied by an independent assessment of the fiscal and economic impact of the policies by the Office for Budget Responsibility, a government watchdog.
While markets have cheered the government’s promise to have its policies independently reviewed, questions remain about how the gap in the public finances can be closed. Economists say there is very little room in stretched department budgets to make cuts. That has led to concerns of a return to austerity measures, reminiscent of the spending cuts after the 2008 financial crisis.
“There is a danger,” Mr. Chadha said, “that we end up with tighter fiscal policy than actually is appropriate given the shock that many households are suffering.” This could make it harder to support people suffering amid rising food and energy prices. But Mr. Chadha argues that it’s clear what needs to happen next: a complete elimination of unfunded tax cuts and careful planning on how to support vulnerable households.
The chancellor could also end up having a lot more autonomy over fiscal policy than the prime minister, he added.
“The best outcome for markets would be a rapid rallying of the parliamentary Conservative Party around a single candidate” who would validate Mr. Hunt’s approach and the timing of the Oct. 31 report, Trevor Greetham, a portfolio manager at Royal London Asset Management, said in a written comment.
Three days after the fiscal statement, on Nov. 3, Bank of England policymakers will announce their next interest rate decisions.
Bond investors are trying to parse how the central bank will react to the rapidly changing fiscal news. On Thursday, before Ms. Truss’s resignation, Ben Broadbent, a member of the central bank’s rate-setting committee, indicated that policymakers might not need to raise interest rates as much as markets currently expect. Traders are betting that the bank will raise rates above 5 percent next year, from 2.25 percent.
The bank could raise rates less than expected next year partly because the economy is forecast to shrink over the year. The International Monetary Fund predicted that the British economy would go from 3.6 percent growth this year to a 0.3 percent contraction next year.
That’s a mild recession compared with some other forecasts, but it would only compound the longstanding economic problems that Britain faced, including weak investment, low productivity growth and businesses’ inability to find employees with the right skills. These were among the challenges that Ms. Truss said she would resolve by shaking up the status quo and targeting economic growth of 2.5 percent a year.
Most economists didn’t believe that “Trussonomics,” as her policies were called, would deliver this economic growth. Instead, they predicted the policies would prolong the country’s inflation problem.
Despite the change in leadership, analysts don’t expect a big rally in Britain’s financial markets. The nation’s international standing could take a long time to recover.
“It takes years to build a reputation and one day to undo it,” Mr. Bouvet said, adding, “Investors will come progressively back to the U.K.,” but it won’t be quickly.
“We in Georgia found ourselves trying to claw back from a historic pandemic, the likes of which we haven’t seen in our lifetime, which created an economic shutdown,” he said. “And now, seeing the economy open up, we’ve experienced major supply chain issues, which have contributed to rising costs.”
Direct pandemic payments were begun under Mr. Trump and continued under Mr. Biden, with no serious talk of another round after the ones delivered in the rescue plan. Most Democrats had hoped the one-year, $100 billion child credit in the rescue plan would be made permanent in a new piece of legislation.
But the credit expired, largely because Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia and a key swing vote, opposed its inclusion in what would become the Inflation Reduction Act, citing concerns the additional money would exacerbate inflation.
Senator Michael Bennet, Democrat of Colorado, was one of the Senate’s most vocal cheerleaders for that credit and an architect of the version included in the rescue plan. His campaign has aired Spanish-language radio ads on the credit in his re-election campaign, targeting a group his team says is particularly favorable toward it, but no television ads. In an interview last week outside a Denver coffee shop, Mr. Bennet conceded the expiration of the credit has sapped some of its political punch.
“It certainly came up when it was here, and it certainly came up when it went away,” he said. “But it’s been some months since that was true. I think, obviously, we’d love to have that right now. Families were getting an average of 450 bucks a month. That would have defrayed a lot of inflation that they’re having to deal with.”
Mr. Biden’s advisers say the rescue plan and its components aren’t being deployed on the trail because other issues have overwhelmed them — from Mr. Biden’s long list of economic bills signed into law as well as the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade that has galvanized the Democratic base. They acknowledge the political and economic challenge posed by rapid inflation, but say Democratic candidates are doing well to focus on direct responses to it, like the efforts to reduce costs of insulin and other prescription drugs.
Ms. Lake, the Democratic pollster, said talking more about the child credit could help re-energize Democratic voters for the midterms. Mr. Warnock’s speech in Dunwoody — an admittedly small sample — suggested otherwise.
PROVO, Utah — Chad Pritchard and his colleagues are trying everything to staff their pizza shop and bistro, and as they do, they have turned to a new tactic: They avoid firing employees at all costs.
Infractions that previously would have led to a quick dismissal no longer do at the chef’s two places, Fat Daddy’s Pizzeria and Bistro Provenance. Consistent transportation issues have ceased to be a deal breaker. Workers who show up drunk these days are sent home to sober up.
Employers in Provo, a college town at the base of the Rocky Mountains where unemployment is near the lowest in the nation at 1.9 percent, have no room to lose workers. Bistro Provenance, which opened in September, has been unable to hire enough employees to open for lunch at all, or for dinner on Sundays and Mondays. The workers it has are often new to the industry, or young: On a recent Wednesday night, a 17-year-old could be found torching a crème brûlée.
Down the street, Mr. Pritchard’s pizza shop is now relying on an outside cleaner to help his thin staff tidy up. And up and down the wide avenue that separates the two restaurants, storefronts display “Help Wanted” signs or announce that the businesses have had to temporarily reduce their hours.
added 263,000 workers in September, fewer than in recent months but more than was normal before the pandemic. Unemployment is at 3.5 percent, matching the lowest level in 50 years, and average hourly earnings picked up at a solid 5 percent clip compared with a year earlier.
roughly 20 percent and sent unemployment to above 10 percent. Few economists expect an outcome that severe this time since today’s inflation burst has been shorter-lived and rates are not expected to climb nearly as much.
are still nearly two open jobs for every unemployed worker — companies may be hesitant to believe that any uptick in worker availability will last.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty about how big of a downturn are we facing,” said Benjamin Friedrich, an associate professor of strategy at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. “You kind of want to be ready when opportunities arise. The way I think about labor hoarding is, it has option value.”
Instead of firing, businesses may look for other ways to trim costs. Mr. Pritchard in Provo and his business partner, Janine Coons, said that if business fell off, their first resort would be to cut hours. Their second would be taking pay cuts themselves. Firing would be a last resort.
The pizzeria didn’t lay off workers during the pandemic, but Mr. Pritchard and Ms. Coons witnessed how punishing it can be to hire — and since all of their competitors have been learning the same lesson, they do not expect them to let go of their employees easily even if demand pulls back.
“People aren’t going to fire people,” Mr. Pritchard said.
But economists warned that what employers think they will do before a slowdown and what they actually do when they start to experience financial pain could be two different things.
The idea that a tight labor market may leave businesses gun-shy about layoffs is untested. Some economists said that they could not recall any other downturn where employers broadly resisted culling their work force.
“It would be a pretty notable change to how employers responded in the past,” said Nick Bunker, director of North American economic research for the career site Indeed.
And even if they do not fire their full-time employees, companies have been making increased use of temporary or just-in-time help in recent months. Gusto, a small-business payroll and benefits platform, conducted an analysis of its clients and found that the ratio of contractors per employee had increased more than 60 percent since 2019.
If the economy slows, gigs for those temporary workers could dry up, prompting them to begin searching for full-time jobs — possibly causing unemployment or underemployment to rise even if nobody is officially fired.
Policymakers know a soft landing is a long shot. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, acknowledged during his last news conference that the Fed’s own estimate of how much unemployment might rise in a downturn was a “modest increase in the unemployment rate from a historical perspective, given the expected decline in inflation.”
But he also added that “we see the current situation as outside of historical experience.”
The reasons for hope extend beyond labor hoarding. Because job openings are so unusually high right now, policymakers hope that workers can move into available positions even if some firms do begin layoffs as the labor market slows. Companies that have been desperate to hire for months — like Utah State Hospital in Provo — may swoop in to pick up anyone who is displaced.
Dallas Earnshaw and his colleagues at the psychiatric hospital have been struggling mightily to hire enough nurse’s aides and other workers, though raising pay and loosening recruitment standards have helped around the edges. Because he cannot hire enough people to expand in needed ways, Mr. Earnshaw is poised to snap up employees if the labor market cools.
“We’re desperate,” Mr. Earnshaw said.
But for the moment, workers remain hard to find. At the bistro and pizza shop in downtown Provo, what worries Mr. Pritchard is that labor will become so expensive that — combined with rapid ingredient inflation — it will be hard or impossible to make a profit without lifting prices on pizzas or prime rib so much that consumers cannot bear the change.
“What scares me most is not the economic slowdown,” he said. “It’s the hiring shortage that we have.”
Social Security, the monthly benefit paid to retirees, disabled people and survivors of beneficiaries, includes an annual cost of living increase that is announced every fall. It helps seniors try to keep pace with the price increases that touch every part of the economy. The adjustment for 2023 will be announced on Thursday, Oct. 13.
The Social Security Administration, the federal government agency that oversees the benefits, adds that money to payments that are received by more than 70 million people, mostly through electronic direct deposits. They begin in January.
The DealBook newsletter delves into a single topic or theme every weekend, providing reporting and analysis that offer a better understanding of an important issue in business. If you don’t already receive the daily newsletter, sign up here.
At a Communist Party congress starting in Beijing on Oct. 16, Xi Jinping is expected to be named to a third five-year term as the country’s top leader, paving the way for him to consolidate power to an extent not seen in decades.
Under Mr. Xi, China has become the world’s dominant manufacturer of everything from cement to solar panels, as well as the main trading partner and dominant lender for most of the developing world. It has built the world’s largest navy, developed some of the world’s most advanced ballistic missiles and constructed air bases on artificial islands strewn across the South China Sea.
in a tailspin. Its property market, which over the last ten years contributed about a quarter of the country’s economic output, is melting down. Foreign investment has faltered. And widespread lockdowns and mass quarantines, part of China’s zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19, have hurt consumer demand and stalled businesses.
At the same time, Mr. Xi has worked to turn China into a more state-led society that often puts national security and ideology before economic growth. He has cracked down on Chinese companies and limited their executives’ power. Some of China’s best-known entrepreneurs have left the country and others, such as Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma, have largely disappeared from public view.
All of this has hurt China’s economy, which was just 0.4 percent larger from April through June than during the same period last year. The growth was far below the government’s initial target for growth of about 5.5 percent this year. For the first year since the 1990s, China’s economic growth is expected to fall below the rest of Asia’s.
at the start of the last party congress, in 2017, lasted more than three hours. But buried in that jargon are likely to be some important messages. Here’s what finance leaders and corporate executives around the world want to know.
Domestic Ideology: ‘Common Prosperity’
One of Mr. Xi’s favorite economic policy initiatives in recent months has a simple, innocuous-sounding name: “common prosperity.” The big question lies in what it means.
Common prosperity, a longtime goal of the Communist Party, has been defined by Mr. Xi as reining in private capital and narrowing China’s huge disparities in wealth. Regulators and tax investigators cracked down last year on tech giants and wealthy celebrities. Beijing demanded that tycoons give back to society. And Mr. Xi has strongly discouraged speculation in housing, pushing instead for government subsidies for the construction of more rental apartments.
A regulatory crackdown on tech companies and after-school education companies contributed to a wave of layoffs that left one in five young Chinese city dwellers unemployed by August. Lending limits on China’s highly inflated housing sector have triggered a nosedive in the number of fresh construction projects being started and a wave of insolvencies among real estate developers. Many Western hedge funds that bet heavily on the real estate developers’ overseas bond issues incurred considerable losses.
The term “common prosperity” was seldom used by top officialslast spring during those setbacks. But Mr. Xi conspicuously revived it during a tour of northeastern China in mid-August. The Politburo subsequently mentioned common prosperity when it announced on Aug. 30 the starting date and agenda for the party congress.
first put forward in May 2020, is a theory of what he calls “dual circulation.” The concept involves relying primarily on domestic demand and innovation to propel the Chinese economy, while maintaining foreign markets and investors as a backup engine for growth.
Mr. Xi has pushed ahead with lavish subsidies to develop Chinese manufacturers, especially of semiconductors. But the slogan has attracted considerable skepticism from foreign investors in China and from foreign governments. They worry that the policy is a recipe for replacing imports with Chinese-made goods.
China’s imports have indeed stagnated this year while its exports have soared, producing the largest trade surpluses the world has ever seen. Those surpluses, not domestic demand, have sustained China’s economic growth this year.
Chinese officials deny that they are trying to discourage imports, and contend that China remains eager to welcome foreign companies and products. When the Politburo scheduled the party congress for Oct. 16, it did not mention dual circulation, so the term might be left aside. If it goes unmentioned, that could be a conciliatory gesture as foreign investment in China is already weakening, mainly because of the country’s draconian pandemic policies.
Pandemic: ‘Covid Zero’
China’s zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19 has prevented a lot of deaths and long-term infections, but at a high and growing cost to the economy. The question now lies in when Mr. Xi will shift to a less restrictive stance toward controlling the virus.
in Tiananmen Square, on the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, when he reiterated China’s claim to Taiwan, a self-ruled island democracy. President Biden has mentioned four times that the United States is prepared to help Taiwan resist aggression. Each time his aides have walked back his comments somewhat, however, emphasizing that the United States retains a policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding its support for the island.
Even a vague mention by Mr. Xi at the party congress of a timeline for trying to bring Taiwan under the mainland’s political control could damage financial confidence in both Taiwan and the mainland.
New Leaders
The most important task of the ruling elite at the congress is to confirm the party’s leadership.
Particularly important to business is who in the lineup will become the new premier. The premier leads the cabinet but not the military, which is directly under Mr. Xi. The position oversees the finance ministry, commerce ministry and other government agencies that make many crucial decisions affecting banks, insurers and other businesses. Whoever is chosen will not be announced until a separate session of the National People’s Congress next March, but the day after the congress formally ends, members of the new Politburo Standing Committee — the highest body of political power in China — will walk on a stage in order of rank. The order in which the new leadership team walks may make clear who will become premier next year.
a leading hub of entrepreneurship and foreign investment in China. Neither has given many clues about their economic thinking since taking posts in Beijing. Mr. Wang had more of a reputation for pursuing free-market policies while in Guangdong.
Mr. Hu is seen as having a stronger political base than Mr. Wang because he is still young enough, 59, to be a potential successor to Mr. Xi. That political strength could give him the clout to push back a little against Mr. Xi’s recent tendency to lean in favor of greater government and Communist Party control of the private sector.
Precisely because Mr. Hu is young enough to be a possible successor, however, many businesspeople and experts think Mr. Xi is more likely to choose Mr. Wang or a dark horse candidate who poses no potential political threat to him.
In any case, the power of the premier has diminished as Mr. Xi has created a series of Communist Party commissions to draft policies for ministries, including a commission that dictates many financial policies.
What do you think? Let us know: dealbook@nytimes.com.
The Federal Reserve has embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates as it tries to tame the most rapid inflation in decades, an effort the central bank sees as necessary to restore price stability in the United States.
But what the Fed does at home reverberates across the globe, and its actions are raising the risks of a global recession while causing economic and financial pain in many developing countries.
Other central banks in advanced economies, from Australia to the eurozone, are also lifting rates rapidly to fight their inflation. And as the Fed’s higher interest rates attract money to the United States — pumping up the value of the dollar — emerging-market economies are being forced to raise their own borrowing costs to try to stabilize their currencies to the extent possible.
Altogether, it is a worldwide push toward more expensive money unlike anything seen before in the 21st century, one that is likely to have serious ramifications.
warned the damage could be particularly acute in poorer nations. Developing economies had already been dealing with a cost-of-living crisis because of soaring food and fuel prices, and now their American imports are growing steadily more expensive as the dollar marches higher.
The Fed’s moves have spurred market volatility and worries about financial stability, as higher rates elevate the value of the U.S. dollar, making it harder for emerging-market borrowers to pay back their dollar-denominated debt.
It is a recipe for globe-spanning turmoil and even recession. Despite that, the Fed is poised to continue raising interest rates. That’s because the Fed, like central banks around the world, is in charge of domestic economy goals: It’s supposed to keep inflation slow and steady while fostering maximum employment. While occasionally called “central banker to the world” because of the dollar’s foremost position, the Fed goes about its day-to-day business with its eye squarely on America.
loss of purchasing power over time, meaning your dollar will not go as far tomorrow as it did today. It is typically expressed as the annual change in prices for everyday goods and services such as food, furniture, apparel, transportation and toys.
What causes inflation? It can be the result of rising consumer demand. But inflation can also rise and fall based on developments that have little to do with economic conditions, such as limited oil production and supply chain problems.
Is inflation bad? It depends on the circumstances. Fast price increases spell trouble, but moderate price gains can lead to higher wages and job growth.
Can inflation affect the stock market? Rapid inflation typically spells trouble for stocks. Financial assets in general have historically fared badly during inflation booms, while tangible assets like houses have held their value better.
The threat facing the global economy — including the Fed’s role in it — is expected to dominate the conversation next week as economists and government officials convene in Washington for the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
In a speech at Georgetown University on Thursday, Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the I.M.F., offered a grim assessment of the world economy and the tightrope that central banks are walking.
“Not tightening enough would cause inflation to become de-anchored and entrenched — which would require future interest rates to be much higher and more sustained, causing massive harm on growth and massive harm on people,” Ms. Georgieva said. “On the other hand, tightening monetary policy too much and too fast — and doing so in a synchronized manner across countries — could push many economies into prolonged recession.”
Noting that inflation remains stubbornly high and broad-based, she added: “Central banks have to continue to respond.”
The World Bank warned last month that simultaneous interest-rate increases around the world could trigger a global recession next year, causing financial crises in developing economies. It urged central banks in advanced economies to be mindful of the cross-border “spillover effects.”
“To achieve low inflation rates, currency stability and faster growth, policymakers could shift their focus from reducing consumption to boosting production,” David Malpass, the World Bank president, said.
Trade and Development Report said.
So far, major central banks have shown little appetite for stopping their inflation-busting campaigns. The Fed, which has made five rate increases this year, has signaled that it plans to raise borrowing costs even higher. Most officials expect to increase rates by at least another 1.25 percentage points this year, taking the policy rate to a range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent from the current 3 to 3.25 percent.
Even economies that are facing a pronounced slowdown have been lifting borrowing costs. The European Central Bank raised rates three-quarters of a point last month, even though the continent is approaching a dark winter of slowing growth and crushing energy costs.
according to the World Bank. Food costs in particular have driven millions further into extreme poverty, exacerbating hunger and malnutrition. As the dollar surge makes a range of imports pricier for emerging markets, that situation could worsen, even as the possibility of financial upheaval increases.
“Low-income developing countries in particular face serious risks from food insecurity and debt distress,” Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the World Trade Organization, said during a news conference this week.
Understand Inflation and How It Affects You
In Africa, officials have been urging the I.M.F. and Group of 20 nations to provide more emergency assistance and debt relief amid inflation and rising interest rates.
“This unprecedented shock further destabilizes the weakest economies and makes their need for liquidity even more pressing, to mitigate the effects of widespread inflation and to support the most vulnerable households and social strata, especially young people and women,” Macky Sall, chairman of the African Union, told leaders at the United Nations General Assembly in September.
To be sure, central bankers in big developed economies like the United States are aware that they are barreling over other economies with their policies. And although they are focused on domestic goals, a severe weakening abroad could pave the way for less aggressive policy because of its implications for their own economic outlooks.
Waning demand from abroad could ease pressure on supply chains and reduce prices. If central bankers decide that such a chain reaction is likely to weigh on their own business activity and inflation, it may give them more room to slow their policy changes.
“The global tightening cycle is something that the Fed has to take into account,” said Megan Greene, global chief economist for the Kroll consulting firm. “They’re interested in what is going on in the rest of the world, inasmuch as it affects their ability to achieve their targets.”
his statement.
But many global economic officials — including those at the Fed — remain focused on very high inflation. Investors expect them to make another large rate increase when they meet on Nov. 1-2.
“We’re very attentive” to international spillovers to both emerging markets and advanced economies, Lisa D. Cook, a Fed governor, said during a question-and-answer session on Thursday. “But our mandate is domestic. So we’re very focused on inflation as it evolves in this country.”
Raghuram Rajan, a former head of India’s central bank and now an economist at the University of Chicago, has in the past pushed the Fed to take foreign conditions into account as it sets policy. He still thinks that measures like bond-buying should be pursued with an eye on global spillovers.
But amid high inflation, he said, central banks are required to pay attention to their own mandates to achieve price stability — even if that makes for a stronger dollar, weaker currencies and more pain abroad.
“The basic problem is that the world of monetary policy dances to the Fed’s tune,” Mr. Rajan said, later adding: “This is a problem with no easy solutions.”
Last year, Klaussner Home Furnishings was so desperate for workers that it began renting billboards near its headquarters in Asheboro, N.C., to advertise job openings. The steep competition for labor drove wages for employees on the furniture maker’s production floor up 12 to 20 percent. The company began offering $1,000 signing bonuses to sweeten the deal.
“Consumer demand was through the roof,” said David Cybulski, Klaussner’s president and chief executive. “We just couldn’t get enough labor fast enough.”
But in recent months, Mr. Cybulski has noticed that frenzy die down.
Hiring for open positions has gotten easier, he said, and fewer Klaussner workers are leaving for other jobs. The company, which has about 1,100 employees, is testing performance rewards to keep workers happy rather than racing to increase wages. The $1,000 signing bonus ended in the spring.
“No one is really chasing employees to the dollar anymore,” he said.
By many measures, the labor market is still extraordinarily strong even as fears of a recession loom. The unemployment rate, which stood at 3.7 percent in August, remains near a five-decade low. There are twice as many job openings as unemployed workers available to fill them. Layoffs, despite some high-profile announcements in recent weeks, are close to a record low.
Walmart and Amazon have announced slowdowns in hiring; others, such as FedEx, have frozen hiring altogether. Americans in July quit their jobs at the lowest rate in more than a year, a sign that the period of rapid job switching, sometimes called the Great Resignation, may be nearing its end. Wage growth, which soared as companies competed for workers, has also slowed, particularly in industries like dining and travel where the job market was particularly hot last year.
More broadly, many companies around the country say they are finding it less arduous to attract and retain employees — partly because many are paring their hiring plans, and partly because the pool of available workers has grown as more people come off the economy’s sidelines. The labor force grew by more than three-quarters of a million people in August, the biggest gain since the early months of the pandemic. Some executives expect hiring to keep getting easier as the economy slows and layoffs pick up.
“Not that I wish ill on any people out there from a layoff perspective or whatever else, but I think there could be an opportunity for us to ramp some of that hiring over the coming months,” Eric Hart, then the chief financial officer at Expedia, told investors on the company’s earnings call in August.
The State of Jobs in the United States
Economists have been surprised by recent strength in the labor market, as the Federal Reserve tries to engineer a slowdown and tame inflation.
Taken together, those signals point to an economic environment in which employers may be regaining some of the leverage they ceded to workers during the pandemic months. That is bad news for workers, particularly those at the bottom of the pay ladder who have been able to take advantage of the hot labor market to demand higher pay, more flexible schedules and other benefits. With inflation still high, weaker wage growth will mean that more workers will find their standard of living slipping.
But for employers — and for policymakers at the Federal Reserve — the calculation looks different. A modest cooling would be welcome after months in which employers struggled to find enough staff to meet strong demand, and in which rapid wage growth contributed to the fastest inflation in decades. Too pronounced a slowdown, however, could lead to a sharp rise in unemployment, which would almost certainly lead to a drop in consumer demand and create a new set of problems for employers.
Recent research from economists at the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and St. Louis found that there had been a huge increase in poaching — companies hiring workers away from other jobs — during the recent hiring boom. If companies become less willing to recruit workers from competitors, and to pay the premium that doing so requires, or if workers become less likely to hop between jobs, that could lead wage growth to ease even if layoffs don’t pick up.
There are hints that could be happening. A recent survey from another career site, ZipRecruiter, found that workers have become less confident in their ability to find a job and are putting more emphasis on finding a job they consider secure.
“Workers and job seekers are feeling just a little bit less bold, a little bit more concerned about the future availability of jobs, a little bit more concerned about the stability of their own jobs,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.
Some businesses, meanwhile, are becoming a bit less frantic to hire. A survey of small businesses from the National Federation of Independent Business found that while many employers still have open positions, fewer of them expect to fill those jobs in the next three months.
More clues about the strength of the labor market could come in the upcoming months, the time of year when companies, including retailers, traditionally ramp up hiring for the holiday season. Walmart said in September that this year it would hire a fraction of the workers it did during the last holiday season.
The signs of a cool-down extend even to leisure and hospitality, the sector where hiring challenges have been most acute. Openings in the sector have fallen sharply from the record levels of last year, and hourly earnings growth slowed to less than 9 percent in August from a rate of more than 16 percent last year.
Until recently, staffing shortages at Biggby Coffee were so severe that many of the chain’s 300-plus stores had to close early some days, or in some cases not open at all. But while hiring remains a challenge, the pressure has begun to ease, said Mike McFall, the company’s co-founder and co-chief executive. One franchisee recently told him that 22 of his 25 locations were fully staffed and that only one was experiencing a severe shortage.
“We are definitely feeling the burden is lifting in terms of getting people to take the job,” Mr. McFall said. “We’re getting more applications, we’re getting more people through training now.”
The shift is a welcome one for business owners like Mr. McFall. He said franchisees have had to raise wages 50 percent or more to attract and retain workers — a cost increase they have offset by raising prices.
“The expectation by the consumer is that you are raising prices, and so if you don’t take advantage of that moment, you are going to be in a pickle,” he said, referring to the pressure to increase wages. “So you manage it by raising prices.”
So far, Mr. McFall said, higher prices haven’t deterred customers. Still, he said, the period of severe staffing shortages is not without its costs. He has seen a loss in sales, as well as a loss of efficiency and experienced workers. That will take time to rebuild, he said.
“When we were in crisis, it was all we were focused on,” he said. “So now that it feels like the crisis is mitigating, that it’s getting a little better, we can now begin to focus on the culture in the stores and try to build that up again.”
