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When Stocks Become Bear Markets

The S&P 500 on Monday dropped into its second bear market of the pandemic, crossing a symbolic and worrisome threshold as stocks plunge following a meteoric rise over the last two years.

Bear markets — when stocks decline at least 20 percent from their recent peaks — are relatively rare, and they frequently precede a recession. This sell-off, dragging the S&P down from a peak on Jan. 3 (which reflects the new bear market’s starting point), comes as concerns mount over high inflation, the war in Ukraine, Covid and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to rein in the economy.

just above a bear market in May before recovering, but stocks fell sharply again on Friday following the latest release of government data showing that inflation had accelerated again.

The worry among stock traders is that the Fed could be forced to constrict the economy’s growth in order to bring inflation under control, leading to a recession. While recessions have often followed bear markets, one does not necessarily cause the other.

“It is not that consumer demand is weak yet — spending has held up,” said Paul Ashworth, who is the chief North American economist at Capital Economics. “The fear is that the Fed is going to go very hard, and that leaves us in a recession at some point.”

800,000 of the 22 million jobs lost at the height of coronavirus-related lockdowns. While rising mortgage rates have begun to dampen activity, housing — generally one of the biggest sources of wealth for Americans — remains strong.

target-date funds, which automatically move 401(k) money into bonds and other safer investments as their retirement age approaches. But 401(k) plans can still take a significant hit in market downturns. In 2008, for instance, as the S&P 500 dropped 37 percent, the average 401(k) account balance for those who were in their 50s fell 24 percent.

People with retirement accounts are keeping more of their assets in stocks now, as opposed to bonds or a mix of other investments. “There has been a growing complacency of people keeping most of their nest eggs in stocks,” said Monique Morrissey, who specializes in retirement at the left-leaning think tank Economic Policy Institute. “There has been a fundamental misunderstanding — returns do not always average out.”

The bigger issue, according to Ms. Morrissey, is that many people have gotten used to the stock market going up. That’s not a guarantee — especially in the near term.

“It’s not just the loss from January; it’s what happens going forward,” she said. “If you were counting on the amount that you have in your 401(k) to continually grow, well, then you may never get to what you had planned for.”

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JUNE 14: 2022 Housing Market: Boom or Bust? Virtual Briefing Features 5 CEOs from Realtor® Groups Across the U.S.

–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Northern Virginia Association of Realtors®:

WHAT

Boom or bust! The residential housing market is grabbing headlines as it continues its 2022 explosive growth despite facing headwinds like mortgage interest rate hikes, low inventory, and record home prices. In this virtual briefing for journalists, five CEOs representing some of the largest Realtor® Associations in the U.S. from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) Association Executives community come together to discuss the similarities and differences in their various residential real estate markets, where their market is today, and what they anticipate for the remainder of 2022 into 2023 – regionally and nationally.

The discussion will be led and moderated by Ryan McLaughlin, CEO, Northern Virginia Association of Realtors®, who is 2022 Chair of NAR’s Association Executives Committee. The AEC serves as a leadership resource for NAR’s more than 1,000 Realtor® associations by ensuring that there is knowledge and understanding of industry issues and concerns between the various Realtor® organizations across the nation.

In addition to McLaughlin, the panel discussion includes CEOs from Realtor® organizations in Charlotte, Denver, Las Vegas, and San Antonio. Each these regions have a unique story to tell and were recognized in NAR’s “Top 10 Outperforming Markets” or “Hidden Gems”, or have been the focus of attention for their extraordinarily fast home price growth or other regional factors.

WHEN

Tuesday, June 14, 12noon – 12:45 p.m. Eastern

WHERE

Virtual by Zoom

www.NVAR.com/PressBriefing

WHO

Moderator: Ryan McLaughlin, CEO, NVAR

Participants:

WHY

Headlines speculating about the housing market in 2022 and beyond are dominating news feeds. One outlet predicts a strong market, another says the bubble will burst in 2023, while still another says it’s a mixed bag. Join these five Realtor® CEOs, who have their finger on the pulse of residential real estate in their city, to learn first-hand how the housing market is faring in their cities today, and what they forecast for the rest of 2022 and into 2023.

HOW

Register for the event here www.NVAR.com/PressBriefing to receive a Zoom link. For questions, contact Shawn Flaherty at 703-554-3609. PLEASE NOTE: Only registered journalists will be permitted into the virtual briefing room.

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DBRS Morningstar: Spanish Housing and Securitisation Market Update

LONDON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–In this commentary, we provide an overview of the Spanish housing market as well as how the recent past is shaping the residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market.

Key findings include:

— The Spanish government introduced several supportive measures due to the impact of the pandemic, which kept the delinquencies low.

— Despite the double-digit decline in GDP caused by the pandemic, Spanish house prices have remained strong.

— The total number of Spanish RMBS deals rated by DBRS Morningstar is 44 and the weighted-average 90+-day arrears by current balance of these deals was 0.8%.

“In 2022, DBRS Morningstar expects the economic recovery to continue, albeit at a slower pace than previously expected, due to geopolitical uncertainties gripping the major world economies. Despite the double-digit decline in GDP caused by the pandemic, Spanish house prices have remained strong overall and house price appreciation may continue during 2022, particularly in large cities such as Madrid and Barcelona”, said Ketan Thaker, Managing Director of European RMBS at DBRS Morningstar..

To view the full report, click here: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/398160/spanish-housing-and-securitisation-market-update

The DBRS Morningstar group of companies consists of DBRS, Inc. (Delaware, U.S.)(NRSRO, DRO affiliate); DBRS Limited (Ontario, Canada)(DRO, NRSRO affiliate); DBRS Ratings GmbH (Frankfurt, Germany)(EU CRA, NRSRO affiliate, DRO affiliate); and DBRS Ratings Limited (England and Wales)(UK CRA, NRSRO affiliate, DRO affiliate). For more information on regulatory registrations, recognitions and approvals of the DBRS Morningstar group of companies, please see: https:// www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/highlights.pdf.

The DBRS Morningstar group of companies are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. © 2021 DBRS Morningstar. All Rights Reserved.

The information upon which DBRS Morningstar ratings and other types of credit opinions and reports are based is obtained by DBRS Morningstar from sources DBRS Morningstar believes to be reliable. DBRS Morningstar does not audit the information it receives in connection with the analytical process, and it does not and cannot independently verify that information in every instance. The extent of any factual investigation or independent verification depends on facts and circumstances. DBRS Morningstar ratings, other types of credit opinions, reports and any other information provided by DBRS Morningstar are provided “as is” and without representation or warranty of any kind. DBRS Morningstar hereby disclaims any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability, fitness for any particular purpose or non-infringement of any of such information. In no event shall DBRS Morningstar or its directors, officers, employees, independent contractors, agents and representatives (collectively, DBRS Morningstar Representatives) be liable (1) for any inaccuracy, delay, loss of data, interruption in service, error or omission or for any damages resulting therefrom, or (2) for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, compensatory or consequential damages arising from any use of ratings and rating reports or arising from any error (negligent or otherwise) or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of DBRS Morningstar or any DBRS Morningstar Representative, in connection with or related to obtaining, collecting, compiling, analyzing, interpreting, communicating, publishing or delivering any such information. No DBRS Morningstar entity is an investment advisor. DBRS Morningstar does not provide investment, financial or other advice. Ratings, other types of credit opinions, other analysis and research issued or published by DBRS Morningstar are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact as to credit worthiness, investment, financial or other advice or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. A report with respect to a DBRS Morningstar rating or other credit opinion is neither a prospectus nor a substitute for the information assembled, verified and presented to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with the sale of the securities. DBRS Morningstar may receive compensation for its ratings and other credit opinions from, among https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/disclaimer/ others, issuers, insurers, guarantors and/or underwriters of debt securities. DBRS Morningstar is not responsible for the content or operation of third party websites accessed through hypertext or other computer links and DBRS Morningstar shall have no liability to any person or entity for the use of such third party websites. This publication may not be reproduced, retransmitted or distributed in any form without the prior written consent of DBRS Morningstar. ALL DBRS MORNINGSTAR RATINGS AND OTHER TYPES OF CREDIT OPINIONS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AT https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/disclaimer. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING DBRS MORNINGSTAR RATINGS AND OTHER TYPES OF CREDIT OPINIONS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES AND METHODOLOGIES, ARE AVAILABLE ON https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com. Users may, through hypertext or other computer links, gain access to websites operated by persons other than DBRS Morningstar. Such hyperlinks are provided for convenience only, and are the exclusive responsibility of the owners of such websites. DBRS Morningstar does not endorse the content, the operator or operations of third party websites. DBRS Morningstar is not responsible for the content or operation of such websites and DBRS Morningstar shall have no liability to you or any other person or entity for the use of third party websites.

The English version of this press release prevails.

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