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Europe Braces for a Winter Without Russian Gas

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A flotilla of tankers carrying liquefied natural gas have been parked in a maritime traffic jam off the coast of Spain in recent days, waiting to unload their precious cargo for Europe’s power grid. In Finland, where sweltering sauna baths are a national pastime, the government is urging friends and families to take saunas together to save energy.

Both efforts are emblematic of the measures Europe is taking to increase energy supplies and conserve fuel before a winter without Russian gas.

The tactic by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to weaponize energy against countries supporting Ukraine has produced a startling transformation in how Europe generates and saves power. Countries are banding together to buy, borrow and build additional power supplies, while pushing out major conservation programs that recall the response to the 1970s oil crisis.

forcing shutdowns at energy-intensive businesses, including the production of steel, chemical and glass. Companies are furloughing workers. Governments are issuing more debt to shield households and businesses from pain. There are growing projections that the energy crisis will tilt Europe into a recession next year.

went on a buying spree, has put so much gas into reserve that there’s no longer room to store the incoming fuel. Europe still gets a small supply — around 7 percent — of natural gas from Russia through pipelines running beneath Ukraine. If that flow is severed, several countries will be in a bind.

And some Europeans may decide that they aren’t so willing after all to make personal sacrifices for Ukraine as household energy bills spiral higher. Street protests against the soaring cost of living have broken out in Paris, Prague and elsewhere, chipping away at Europe’s united front for sanctions against Russia.

fill most of their gas reserves — enough to provide around three months of power — despite dwindling Russian flows. Unseasonably warm weather in Europe is delaying the need for early heating, so the stock may last longer than expected.

The consulting group Rystad Energy has calculated that Europe has enough gas stored to survive this winter unless it gets very cold, while natural gas prices have fallen to their lowest levels since June.

even tougher winter next year as natural gas stocks are used up and as new supplies to replace Russian gas, including increased shipments from the United States or Qatar, are slow to come online, the International Energy Agency said in its annual World Energy Outlook, released last week.

Europe’s activity appears to be accelerating a global transition toward cleaner technologies, the I.E.A. added, as countries respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by embracing hydrogen fuels, electric vehicles, heat pumps and other green energies.

But in the short term, countries will be burning more fossil fuels in response to the natural gas shortages.

gas fields in Groningen, which had been slated to be sealed because of earthquakes triggered by the extraction of the fuel.

Eleven countries, including Germany, Finland and Estonia, are now building or expanding a total of 18 offshore terminals to process liquid gas shipped in from other countries. Other projects in Latvia and Lithuania are under consideration.

Nuclear power is winning new support in countries that had previously decided to abandon it, including Germany and Belgium. Finland is planning to extend the lifetime of one reactor, while Poland and Romania plan to build new nuclear power plants.

European Commission blueprint, are voluntary and rely on buy-ins from individuals and businesses whose utility bills may be subsidized by their governments.

Energy use dropped in September in several countries, although it is hard to know for sure if the cause was balmy weather, high prices or voluntary conservation efforts inspired by a sense of civic duty. But there are signs that businesses, organizations and the public are responding. In Sweden, for example, the Lund diocese said it planned to partially or fully close 150 out of 540 churches this winter to conserve energy.

Germany and France have issued sweeping guidance, which includes lowering heating in all homes, businesses and public buildings, using appliances at off-peak hours and unplugging electronic devices when not in use.

Denmark wants households to shun dryers and use clotheslines. Slovakia is urging citizens to use microwaves instead of stoves and brush their teeth with a single glass of water.

website. “Short showers,” wrote one homeowner; another announced: “18 solar panels coming to the roof in October.”

“In the coming winter, efforts to save electricity and schedule the consumption of electricity may be the key to avoiding electricity shortages,” Fingrad, the main grid operator, said.

Businesses are being asked to do even more, and most governments have set targets for retailers, manufacturers and offices to find ways to ratchet down their energy use by at least 10 percent in the coming months.

Governments, themselves huge users of energy, are reducing heating, curbing streetlight use and closing municipal swimming pools. In France, where the state operates a third of all buildings, the government plans to cut energy use by two terawatt-hours, the amount used by a midsize city.

Whether the campaigns succeed is far from clear, said Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies, a European think tank. Because the recommendations are voluntary, there may be little incentive for people to follow suit — especially if governments are subsidizing energy bills.

In countries like Germany, where the government aims to spend up to €200 billion to help households and businesses offset rising energy prices starting next year, skyrocketing gas prices are hitting consumers now. “That is useful in getting them to lower their energy use,” he said. But when countries fund a large part of the bill, “there is zero incentive to save on energy,” he said.

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Midterm Disinformation Has Taken Over Pennsylvania

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WEST CHESTER, Pa. — Disinformation has long been a feature of American politics. Mudslinging, smear campaigns, dirty tricks. Yet wading through the muck ahead of this year’s midterm elections in one fiercely contested state, Pennsylvania, shows just how thoroughly it now warps the American democratic process.

In July, a tweet made the rounds spreading a falsehood about voting. “BREAKING: Pennsylvania will not be accepting mail-in ballots,” declared someone using an account called the Donald J. Trump Tracker.

In September, mysterious letters began arriving in mailboxes in Chester County, on the old Main Line west of Philadelphia, falsely telling people that their votes might not have been counted in the last election.

No, the Democratic candidate for United States Senate, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, does not have tattoos of the Crips, the notorious street gang from Los Angeles, as Newt Gingrich said on Fox.

contentious primaries, Pennsylvanians have experienced a deluge of false or misleading posts, photographs and videos on social media, as well as increasingly partisan, bitter and at times unhinged claims on television, radio and live streams to a degree that no one recalled seeing before.

“I’m not saying the politics was ever, you know, perfect,” Michael Nutter, the mayor of Philadelphia from 2008 to 2016, said in an interview, lamenting the seemingly bottomless depth of the problem.

“I think what’s changed is you go back 100 years and you’d have had to put a whole lot more effort into spreading lies,” he said. “Now, you can just push a button.”

FactCheck.org.

A lot of attention has focused on a stroke that Mr. Fetterman suffered in May, just as he clinched the Democratic nomination. The stroke left him with an auditory processing disorder, a condition that affects the brain’s ability to filter and interpret sounds, which Republicans have said makes him unfit for office. His speech has also become more halting, and he stumbles over his words, as he did multiple times in the debate last week against his Republican opponent, Mehmet Oz, the television personality known as Dr. Oz.

Opponents used his verbal gaffes in misleading ways. A video montage by a Republican campaign operative, Greg Price, exaggerated the effects of the stroke, while a Twitter account impersonating BuzzFeed falsely claimed that Mr. Fetterman had apologized for urinating on a campaign staffer. Mr. Price did not respond to requests for comment.

Other false claims have, again, questioned the machines that count votes, while a recent flurry of posts on Telegram, the app created in Russia, have incorrectly accused the state’s top election official of not complying with legal rulings about mail-in ballots. ActiveFence, a cybersecurity company, said that these claims have spread across platforms, garnering tens of thousands of impressions.

Jill Greene, the state representative for Common Cause, the national good-government organization, said that the many unfounded and untruthful claims posed a challenge for voters.

pledged to remove or marginalize false posts ahead of the midterms.

A doctored post on Facebook, to cite one of scores of examples, showed Mr. Oz kneeling to kiss the star of Donald J. Trump along the Hollywood Walk of Fame. (In the original, he was kissing his own star.)

being repeatedly told that the American election process is deeply corrupted.

In fact, Mr. Mastriano’s candidacy has from its inception been propelled by his role in disputing the 2020 presidential election lost by Mr. Trump.

county by county, but election experts say they do not reflect factors as benign as changes in addresses.

“They’re in search of solutions to a problem that doesn’t exist,” Kyle Miller, a Navy veteran and state representative for Protect Democracy, a national advocacy organization, said in an interview in Harrisburg. “They are basing this on faulty data and internet rumors.”

Some Republican lawmakers have leaned on false claims to call for changes to rules about mail-in ballots and other measures intended to make it easier for people to vote. Several counties have already reversed some of the decisions, including the number and location of drop boxes for ballots.

Mr. Miller, among others, warned that the flurry of false claims about balloting could be a trial run for challenging the results of the presidential election in 2024, in which Pennsylvania could again be a crucial swing state.

In Chester County, a largely white region that borders Delaware and Maryland that is roughly split between Republicans and Democrats, the effort to sow confusion came the old-fashioned way: in the mail.

Letters dated Sept. 12 began arriving in mailboxes across the county, warning people that their votes in the 2020 presidential election might not have counted. “Because you have a track record of consistently voting, we find it unusual that your record indicates that you did not vote,” the letter, which was unsigned, said.

The sender called itself “Data Insights,” based in the county seat of West Chester, though no known record of such a company exists, according to county officials. The letters did include copies of the recipients’ voting records. The letters urged recipients to write to the county commissioners or attend the commission’s meetings in the county seat of West Chester, in September and October. Dozens of recipients did.

The county administrator, Robert J. Kagel, tried to assure them that their votes were actually counted. He urged anyone concerned to contact the county’s voter services department.

Even so, at county meetings in September and October, speaker after speaker lined up to question the letter and the ballot process generally — and to air an array of grievances and conspiracy theories.

They included the discredited claims of the film “2000 Mules” that operatives have been stuffing boxes for mail-in ballots. One attendee warned that votes were being tabulated by the Communist Party of China or the World Economic Forum.

“I don’t know where my vote is,” another resident, Barbara Ellis of Berwyn, told the commissioners in October. “I don’t know if it was manipulated in the machines, in another country.”

As of Oct. 20, 59 people in Chester County had contacted officials with concerns raised in the letter, but in each case, it was determined that the voters’ ballots had been cast and counted, said Rebecca Brain, a county spokesman.

Who exactly sent the letters remains a mystery, which only fuels more conspiracy theories.

“It seems very official,” Charlotte Valyo, the chairwoman of the Democratic Party in the county, said of the letter. She described it as part of “an ongoing, constant campaign to undermine the confidence in our voting system.” The county’s Republican Party did not respond to a request for comment.

Disinformation may not be the only cause of the deepening partisan chasm in the state — or the nation — but it has undoubtedly worsened it. The danger, Ms. Valyo warned, was discouraging voting by sowing distrust in the ability of election officials to tally the votes.

“People might think, ‘Why bother, if they’re that messed up?’”

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TV Prepares for a Chaotic Midterm Night

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Gearing up to report this year’s midterm election results, American television networks are facing an uncomfortable question: How many viewers will believe them?

Amid rampant distrust in the news media and a rash of candidates who have telegraphed that they may claim election fraud if they lose, news anchors and executives are seeking new ways to tackle the attacks on the democratic process that have infected politics since the last election night broadcast in 2020.

“For entrepreneurs of chaos, making untrue claims about the election system is a route to greater glory,” said John Dickerson, the chief political analyst at CBS News, who will co-anchor the network’s coverage on Nov. 8. “Elections and the American experiment exist basically on faith in the system, and if people don’t have any faith in the system, they may decide to take things into their own hands.”

CBS has been televising elections since 1948. But this is the first year that the network has felt obligated to install a dedicated “Democracy Desk” as a cornerstone of its live coverage. Seated a few feet from the co-anchors in the network’s Times Square studio, election law experts and correspondents will report on fraud allegations and threats of violence at the polls.

one-third of adults in a recent Gallup poll expressing confidence in it.

“I can’t control what politicians are going to say, if they choose to call an election result into question,” said David Chalian, CNN’s political director. “You’ve got to be clear, when it’s a partial picture, that nothing about that is untoward.”

Two years ago, TV networks prepared for pandemic-related ballot headaches and speculation that President Donald J. Trump might resist conceding defeat.

“blue wave” had fizzled and that Republicans would retain control of the House. It was Fox News again, working off a proprietary data model, that made the correct call that Democrats would take the chamber.

controversial Arizona call in 2020. Although Fox’s projection was eventually proved correct, it took several days for other news outlets to concur, and Mr. Trump turned his wrath on the network in retaliation. The network later fired a top executive, Chris Stirewalt, who was involved in the decision to announce the call so early; another executive involved in the decision, Bill Sammon, promptly retired.

“What we want to be, always, is right — and first is really nice — but right is what we want to be,” said Mr. Baier of Fox. “In the wake of 2020, we’re going to be looking at numbers very closely, and there may be times when we wait for more raw vote total than we have in the past.”

“It’ll be a lot smoother than that moment,” he added, referring to when he and his fellow co-anchors were visibly caught by surprise as their colleagues projected a victory for Mr. Biden in Arizona. Fox officials later ascribed the confusion to poor communication among producers.

“I think,” Mr. Baier said, “we all learned a lot from that experience.”

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Impac Mortgage Holdings, Inc. Announces Completion of Exchange Offers Relating to its Preferred Stock

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IRVINE, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Impac Mortgage Holdings, Inc. (NYSE American: IMH) (the “Company”) today announced the completion of its previously announced offers to each holder of the Company’s 9.375% Series B Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share (“Series B Preferred Stock”) and each holder of the Company’s 9.125% Series C Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share (the “Series C Preferred Stock,” and together with the Series B Preferred Stock, the “Preferred Stock”) to exchange all outstanding shares of Preferred Stock for certain stock and warrant consideration (the “Exchange Offers”).

In conjunction with the closing of the Exchange Offers, the Company will issue approximately (A) (i) 6,142,213 shares of Common Stock and (ii) 13,823,340 shares of the Company’s 8.25% Series D Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share (the “New Preferred Stock”) in exchange for the shares of Series B Preferred Stock tendered in the Exchange Offer for the Series B Preferred Stock, and (B) (i) 1,188,106 shares of Common Stock, (ii) 950,471 shares of New Preferred Stock, and (iii) 1,425,695 Warrants to purchase the same number of shares of Common Stock in exchange for the shares of Series C Preferred Stock tendered in the Exchange Offer for the Series C Preferred Stock.

In addition, in connection with the petitions (the “Plaintiff Series B Award Motions”) for a court award of attorney’s fees, expenses or other monetary award to be deducted and paid from the Company’s payment of distributions or other payments to the holders of the Company’s Series B Preferred Stock in the matter Curtis J. Timm, et al. v Impac Mortgage Holdings, Inc. et al. (the “Maryland Action”), the Company will deposit, no later than November 2, 2022, approximately (i) 13,311,840 shares of New Preferred Stock and (ii) 4,437,280 shares of the Company’s Common Stock in the custody of a third party custodian or escrow agent (the “Escrow Shares”). The allocation of the Escrow Shares will be made by instruction from the Circuit Court of Baltimore City upon final disposition of all outstanding matters in the Maryland Action, including the Plaintiff Series B Award Motions.

D.F. King & Co., Inc. served as the Information Agent and Solicitation Agent for the Exchange Offers and the accompanying solicitation of consents from the holders of Preferred Stock, and American Stock Transfer & Trust Company, LLC served as the Exchange Agent.

This announcement is for informational purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to purchase or a solicitation of an offer to sell the shares of Preferred Stock, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of the Company’s Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share, warrants to purchase Common Stock, or shares of the Company’s 8.25% Series D Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share, or a solicitation of the related consents. The Exchange Offers were made only through, and pursuant to the terms and conditions set forth in, the Company’s Schedule TO, Prospectus/Consent Solicitation and related Letters of Transmittal and Consents.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements, some of which are based on various assumptions and events that are beyond our control, may be identified by reference to a future period or periods or by the use of forward-looking terminology, such as “may,” “capable,” “will,” “intends,” “believe,” “expect,” “likely,” “potentially,” “appear,” “should,” “could,” “seem to,” “anticipate,” “expectations,” “plan,” “ensure,” “desire,” or similar terms or variations on those terms or the negative of those terms. The forward-looking statements are based on current management expectations. Actual results may differ materially as a result of several factors, including, but not limited to the following: acceptance of a plan for regaining compliance with the NYSE American’s listed company standards; impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets due to the outbreak and continued effect of the COVID-19 pandemic; our ability to successfully consummate the contemplated exchange offers for our outstanding preferred stock and receive the requisite consents for the proposed amendments to our charter documents to facilitate the redemption from holders of our outstanding preferred stock who do not participate in the exchange offers; any adverse impact or disruption to the Company’s operations; changes in general economic and financial conditions (including federal monetary policy, interest rate changes, and inflation); increase in interest rates, inflation, and margin compression; ability to successfully sell aggregated loans to third-party investors; successful development, marketing, sale and financing of new and existing financial products, including NonQM products; recruit and hire talent to rebuild our TPO NonQM origination team, and increase NonQM originations; volatility in the mortgage industry; performance of third-party sub-servicers; our ability to manage personnel expenses in relation to mortgage production levels; our ability to successfully use warehousing capacity and satisfy financial covenants; our ability to maintain compliance with the continued listing requirements of the NYSE American for our common stock; increased competition in the mortgage lending industry by larger or more efficient companies; issues and system risks related to our technology; ability to successfully create cost and product efficiencies through new technology including cyber risk and data security risk; more than expected increases in default rates or loss severities and mortgage related losses; ability to obtain additional financing through lending and repurchase facilities, debt or equity funding, strategic relationships or otherwise; the terms of any financing, whether debt or equity, that we do obtain and our expected use of proceeds from any financing; increase in loan repurchase requests and ability to adequately settle repurchase obligations; failure to create brand awareness; the outcome of any claims we are subject to, including any settlements of litigation or regulatory actions pending against us or other legal contingencies; and compliance with applicable local, state and federal laws and regulations.

For a discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see our latest Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q we file with the SEC and in particular the discussion of “Risk Factors” therein. This document speaks only as of its date and we do not undertake, and expressly disclaim any obligation, to release publicly the results of any revisions that may be made to any forward-looking statements to reflect the occurrence of anticipated or unanticipated events or circumstances after the date of such statements except as required by law.

About the Company

Impac Mortgage Holdings, Inc. (IMH or Impac) provides innovative mortgage lending and real estate solutions that address the challenges of today’s economic environment. Impac’s operations include mortgage lending, servicing, portfolio loss mitigation, real estate services, and the management of the securitized long-term mortgage portfolio, which includes the residual interests in securitizations.

For additional information, questions or comments, please call Justin Moisio, Chief Administrative Officer at (949) 475-3988 or email Justin.Moisio@ImpacMail.com.

Website: http://ir.impaccompanies.com or www.impaccompanies.com

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Elon Musk Seems to Answer to No One. Except for a Judge in Delaware.

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Judge Kathaleen St. J. McCormick has become a very important person in the rambunctious life of Elon Musk.

The Delaware Chancery Court judge has given Mr. Musk until Friday to close his long-promised, $44 billion deal to acquire Twitter. If he doesn’t, Judge McCormick will preside over a trial in November that could end with Mr. Musk being forced to make good on the deal he made with Twitter in April.

The 43-year-old judge is also expected to preside over another case involving Mr. Musk in November. A Tesla shareholder accused him in a lawsuit of unjustly enriching himself with his compensation package while running the electric vehicle company, which is Mr. Musk’s main source of wealth. The package, which consisted entirely of a stock grant, is now worth around $50 billion based on Tesla’s share price.

Judge McCormick is also overseeing three other shareholder lawsuits against Mr. Musk, though it is not yet clear whether those will go to trial, too.

before it represented Mr. Musk. But, he said, “the deal will either close and then she will be a hero. Or not and Musk will look really bad.”

As a young girl, Judge McCormick played first base on the softball team and managed the high school football team. She has a long-held soft spot for the book “To Kill a Mockingbird,” about a Black man in small-town Alabama who was wrongfully accused of sexual assault.

unsolicited bid worth more than $40 billion for the social network, saying he wanted to make Twitter a private company and allow people to speak more freely on the service.

She then worked as a staff attorney with the Community Legal Aid Society, where she represented the needy and victims of domestic violence. She moved to a corporate law role at the firm Young Conaway Stargatt and Taylor in 2007, a mainstay in the Delaware legal circuit.

In 2018, she was nominated by John Carney, the governor of Delaware, to serve as vice chancellor on the state’s high court, the Delaware Chancery Court. In 2021, Gov. Carney nominated Ms. McCormick to become the first woman to lead the court.

More than 1.8 million businesses are incorporated in Delaware, including more than two thirds of Fortune 500 companies — and they all look to the court for guidance. When Twitter filed its lawsuit against Mr. Musk in July forcing him to close his acquisition, its case went to Delaware, where the company, like many others, is incorporated.

Judge McCormick, who has first dibs on any proceeding that comes before the court, chose herself of among a court of seven judges to oversee one of the most high profile corporate court battles in years.

At a hearing in September, as lawyers for Mr. Musk argued to delay the trial to take into account new claims from a whistle-blower, she poked at the billionaire’s decision to skip due diligence in his race to sign the deal in April. When Mr. Musk’s lawyer argued it would have been impossible to find out about the whistle-blower before the deal, she interjected, “We’ll never know, will we?” She added that “there was no due diligence.”

wrote in a ruling.

“She evidently was not putting up with any nonsense,” said Lawrence Hamermesh, a professor of law at Delaware Law School.

In October, after weeks of presiding over bruising back and forth arguments between the two sides, Judge McCormick granted Mr. Musk’s requests to put the trial on hold to give him more time to complete his financing for the acquisition. Judge McCormick granted him until Oct. 28 — a three-week delay.

“She had one eye on the clock,” said Brian Quinn, a professor at Boston College Law School, noting the two sides did not seem ready for a trial just two weeks away. “Another eye,” Mr. Quinn said, was “on potential appeals. She is looking forward saying, ‘Well, what if I ruled against Musk, and he appealed, and his appeal is that I pushed him — I rushed him toward the trial when he wanted to close the deal.’”

Judge McCormick is well-versed in trials involving deals with buyers that tried to walk away. As an associate at the law firm Young Conaway Stargatt and Taylor, she worked on cases involving deals that went awry when the stock market crashed in 2008. That included representing the chemical company Huntsman in 2008 when the private equity firm Apollo Global Management scuttled the deal it had struck to combine the chemical company with another it owned.

That deal, and others like it, paved the way for the kinds of contracts Twitter signed with Mr. Musk. Sellers learned how to prevent buyers from trying similar escape hatches. Companies increasingly structure deals with “specific performance” clauses allowing them to force a deal to close.

to follow through with its acquisition of a cake supplier after it argued that the pandemic had materially damaged the business by curbing demand for party cake.

Kohlberg contended it could not complete the deal because its debt financing had fallen apart. Judge McCormick did not buy that argument.

If Mr. Musk does not come through with Twitter’s money by Friday, that could ding his credibility in court, legal experts say. That could matter in November, when Judge McCormick is set to preside over a separate trial involving Mr. Musk and his compensation.

The case, filed in 2018, had originally been assigned to another judge on the Delaware Chancery Court, Joseph R. Slights III, before he retired in January. Judge McCormick picked up the case on Jan. 12, the same month Mr. Musk began to buy up shares of Twitter stock that ultimately led to his planned purchase of the company.

“It’s not ideal for him,” said Ann Lipton, a professor of corporate governance at Tulane Law School, of Mr. Musk’s multiple run-ins with Judge McCormick. “She’s uniquely low drama, which is the opposite of Musk. ”

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How Disinformation Splintered and Became More Intractable

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On the morning of July 8, former President Donald J. Trump took to Truth Social, a social media platform he founded with people close to him, to claim that he had in fact won the 2020 presidential vote in Wisconsin, despite all evidence to the contrary.

Barely 8,000 people shared that missive on Truth Social, a far cry from the hundreds of thousands of responses his posts on Facebook and Twitter had regularly generated before those services suspended his megaphones after the deadly riot on Capitol Hill on Jan. 6, 2021.

And yet Mr. Trump’s baseless claim pulsed through the public consciousness anyway. It jumped from his app to other social media platforms — not to mention podcasts, talk radio or television.

Within 48 hours of Mr. Trump’s post, more than one million people saw his claim on at least dozen other media. It appeared on Facebook and Twitter, from which he has been banished, but also YouTube, Gab, Parler and Telegram, according to an analysis by The New York Times.

gone mainstream among Republican Party members, driving state and county officials to impose new restrictions on casting ballots, often based on mere conspiracy theories percolating in right-wing media.

Voters must now sift through not only an ever-growing torrent of lies and falsehoods about candidates and their policies, but also information on when and where to vote. Officials appointed or elected in the name of fighting voter fraud have put themselves in the position to refuse to certify outcomes that are not to their liking.

a primary battleground in today’s fight against disinformation. A report last month by NewsGuard, an organization that tracks the problem online, showed that nearly 20 percent of videos presented as search results on TikTok contained false or misleading information on topics such as school shootings and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

continued to amplify “election denialism” in ways that undermined trust in the democratic system.

Another challenge is the proliferation of alternative platforms for those falsehoods and even more extreme views.

new survey by the Pew Research Center found that 15 percent of prominent accounts on those seven platforms had previously been banished from others like Twitter and Facebook.

F.B.I. raid on Mar-a-Lago thrust his latest pronouncements into the eye of the political storm once again.

study of Truth Social by Media Matters for America, a left-leaning media monitoring group, examined how the platform had become a home for some of the most fringe conspiracy theories. Mr. Trump, who began posting on the platform in April, has increasingly amplified content from QAnon, the online conspiracy theory.

He has shared posts from QAnon accounts more than 130 times. QAnon believers promote a vast and complex conspiracy that centers on Mr. Trump as a leader battling a cabal of Democratic Party pedophiles. Echoes of such views reverberated through Republican election campaigns across the country during this year’s primaries.

Ms. Jankowicz, the disinformation expert, said the nation’s social and political divisions had churned the waves of disinformation.

The controversies over how best to respond to the Covid-19 pandemic deepened distrust of government and medical experts, especially among conservatives. Mr. Trump’s refusal to accept the outcome of the 2020 election led to, but did not end with, the Capitol Hill violence.

“They should have brought us together,” Ms. Jankowicz said, referring to the pandemic and the riots. “I thought perhaps they could be kind of this convening power, but they were not.”

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Battle Over Wage Rules for Tipped Workers Is Heating Up

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Sylvia Gaston, a waitress at a restaurant in Astoria, Queens, said her base wage is $7.50 an hour — even though New York City’s legal subminimum is $10, which must come to at least $15 after tips. Ms. Gaston, 40, who is from Mexico, feels that undocumented workers like her have a harder time fighting back when they are shortchanged.

“It doesn’t really matter if you have documents or not — I think folks are still getting underpaid in general,” she said. “However, when it comes to uplifting your voices and speaking about it, the folks who can get a little bit more harsh repercussions are people who are undocumented.”

Subminimum base pay for some tipped workers in the state, such as car washers, hairdressers and nail salon employees, was abolished in 2019 under an executive order by Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, but workers in the food and drinks industry were left out.

Gov. Kathy Hochul, Mr. Cuomo’s successor, said while lieutenant governor in 2020 that she supported “a solid, full wage for restaurant workers.” And progressive legislators plan a bill in January that would eliminate the two-tier wage system by the end of 2025.

When The New York Times asked if she would support such changes, Ms. Hochul’s office did not answer directly. “We are always exploring the best ways to provide support” to service workers, it said.

Proponents of abandoning subminimum wages say there could be advantages for employers, including less turnover, better service and higher morale.

David Cooper, the director of the economic analysis and research network at the Economic Policy Institute, a progressive think tank, contends that when wage laws are changed to a single-tier system, business owners can have the assurance that “every single person they compete with is making the same exact adjustment,” reducing the specter of a competitive disadvantage.

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Aimco Files Definitive Proxy Materials and Mails Letter to Stockholders

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DENVER–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Apartment Investment and Management Company (NYSE: AIV) (“Aimco” or the “Company”), today announced that it has filed its definitive proxy materials with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) in connection with its 2022 Annual Meeting of Stockholders scheduled to be held on December 16, 2022. Stockholders of record as of October 26, 2022, will be entitled to vote at the meeting. Aimco’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) strongly recommends that stockholders vote on the WHITE proxy card “FOR ALL” three of Aimco’s qualified and experienced director nominees, Jay Paul Leupp, Michael A. Stein and R. Dary Stone.

In conjunction with the definitive proxy filing, Aimco has also mailed a letter to the Company’s stockholders. Highlights from the letter include:

Aimco’s definitive proxy materials and other materials regarding the Board’s recommendation for the 2022 Annual Meeting of Stockholders can be found at https://investors.aimco.com.

1 TSR calculation as of September 30, 2022

2 Includes AHH, CLPR, CSR, FOR, FPH, HHC, IRT, JBGS, JOE, STRS, TRC, VRE, and WRE (per AIV 2021 10-K) represents simple average

The full text of the letter being mailed to stockholders follows:

October 12, 2022

Dear Fellow Stockholders:

Your Board of Directors and management team are committed to enhancing the value of your investment in Aimco and have been unwavering in our commitment to acting in the best interests of our stockholders. We have implemented a clearly defined value creation strategy and a comprehensive transformation of Aimco’s legacy business under a recently reconstituted, majority-independent Board (the “New Aimco Board” or the “Board”) and all-new executive management team.

Since the New Aimco Board and management team assumed their current roles following the Apartment Income REIT Corp. (“AIR”) spin-off in December 2020, Aimco has delivered total stockholder returns of 45%3, significantly outperforming its identified developer peer group4, the FTSE NAREIT Equity Apartments Index, the MSCI US REIT Index, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000.

Aimco expects to continue to drive growth and outsized returns by:

The New Aimco Board and new management team executing this plan were put in place in connection with the 2020 spin-off of AIR, with the Company:

Despite Aimco’s clear momentum and the recent reconstitution of the Aimco Board, Land & Buildings Investment Management LLC (“Land & Buildings”) has initiated a proxy contest and is seeking to remove and replace two of your highly qualified directors. We have engaged with Land & Buildings to better understand its perspectives and have reviewed the qualifications of the candidates it has put forth. It is clear from our interactions to date, however, that Land & Buildings is primarily focused on historical issues and decisions made prior to the reconstitution of the Aimco Board and the replacement of the Aimco management team. While the New Aimco Board and management are open to continued dialogue with Land & Buildings, we believe that additional director turnover at this time is unwarranted. We also believe that the candidates proposed by Land & Buildings would not bring any relevant expertise that is not already well represented on the Aimco Board, and that election of Land & Buildings’ candidates would remove expertise from the New Aimco Board that is critical to our success.

Against this backdrop, you now face an important decision regarding the future of your investment and go-forward Board of Directors. Your Board has three directors up for re-election who have highly relevant skills and expertise and are important contributors to Aimco’s ongoing success. To protect your investment, we strongly recommend that you vote the enclosed universal WHITE proxy card today “FOR” all three of Aimco’s qualified and experienced director nominees: Jay Paul Leupp, Michael A. Stein and R. Dary Stone. Please vote today to ensure your voice is heard at the Company’s Annual Meeting of Stockholders (“Annual Meeting”) on December 16, 2022.

PROTECT THE VALUE OF YOUR INVESTMENT.

USE THE UNIVERSAL WHITE PROXY CARD TODAY TO VOTE FOR ALL THREE

OF AIMCO’S QUALIFIED AND EXPERIENCED DIRECTORS

AIMCO IS SUCCESSFULLY EXECUTING ITS VALUE ADD STRATEGY

For the past 21 months, Aimco has been successfully executing a growth strategy focused on value add, opportunistic, and alternative investments, targeting the U.S. multifamily sector.

As part of this strategy, we’ve taken decisive actions to drive stockholder value, by:

AIMCO HAS DELIVERED SIGNIFICANT VALUE FOR STOCKHOLDERS

Since the December 2020 spin-off, Aimco has significantly outperformed its identified developer peer group, real estate market indices, and broader market indices, as evidenced in the following chart.

From an operating perspective, we have generated significant value across our stabilized portfolio and our development pipeline. For example, during the first half of 2022, we increased net operating income by 14.9%, and since the start of 2021, we have nearly tripled the Company’s future development pipeline.

Importantly, we have a clear plan to build on this progress and drive continued growth. We will remain primarily focused on multifamily housing with an increased allocation to value add and opportunistic investments. We will also continue to leverage the Company’s best-in-class platform, existing portfolio of value add and stable core properties, and an investment pipeline that leads to superior risk-adjusted returns.

Despite these strong results and clear and actionable strategy, the New Aimco Board is not standing still. We routinely consider all viable options to enhance and unlock stockholder value and remain committed to doing so going forward.

NEW AIMCO BOARD AND MANAGEMENT TEAM HAVE ENGAGED CONSTRUCTIVELY

WITH STOCKHOLDERS, INCLUDING LAND & BUILDINGS

Aimco is committed to open and constructive engagement with all stockholders, including Land & Buildings. Aimco has held more than 80 individual meetings with more than 35 current and prospective stockholders in the past 13 months, including stockholders that own in the aggregate more than 80% of Aimco’s outstanding shares of common stock, as well as multiple meetings with Land & Buildings, as described in the Company’s proxy statement. The New Aimco Board has demonstrated that we value and act on the feedback we receive.

The New Aimco Board and management team are focused on the future, executing a clear and effective strategy to enhance the value of your investment, while Land & Buildings’ complaints primarily relate to decisions made almost two years ago by the pre-spin Board of Directors and management team.

THE DIRECTORS ON AIMCO’S MAJORITY-INDEPENDENT, RECONSTITUTED BOARD

BRING HIGHLY RELEVANT SKILLS AND FRESH PERSPECTIVES

Aimco is seeking your support to vote FOR ALL of its three highly qualified, experienced directors at this year’s Annual Meeting: Jay Paul Leupp, Michael A. Stein and R. Dary Stone.

The New Aimco Board is purpose-built, and its composition reflects our commitment to closely aligning the skill sets and experience of the Company’s directors with the needs of the Company and its stockholders. Importantly, the Board works closely with management and has been—and will continue to be—a significant agent of change overseeing the continued improvement of Aimco’s performance and valuation.

We are confident that our three highly-qualified nominees seeking re-election are the better choice to build on the success that Aimco has delivered. Aimco’s three director nominees bring highly relevant expertise and complementary skillsets, and our Board is unanimous in recommending that stockholders vote for our three nominees.

Mr. Leupp, an independent director and the Chairman of Aimco’s Audit Committee, has been an integral part of our Board since his appointment in December 2020 and brings capital markets, investment and finance, real estate, and development experience gained through his over 28 years as a Portfolio Manager and Managing Director focused on investments in publicly traded real estate securities and publicly traded REIT board service. Mr. Leupp is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA).

Mr. Stein, an independent director and Chairman of Aimco’s Investment Committee, is a seasoned executive who brings real estate investment and finance, financial reporting, accounting and auditing, capital markets, and business operations experience, gained through his experience as a director of five publicly traded companies and Chief Financial Officer of three publicly traded companies. Further, having served on Aimco’s Board since October 2004, Mr. Stein has significant institutional knowledge of Aimco.

Mr. Stone, an independent director and Chairman of Aimco’s Nominating, Environmental, Social, and Governance Committee, is an experienced leader and has served on Aimco’s Board since December 2020 and brings investment and finance, real estate, development, property / asset management and operations, and capital markets experience gained through his over 30-year career investing and developing a variety of projects and joint ventures, including the management of one of the country’s largest master planned developments. He also brings publicly traded REIT board service.

PROTECT THE VALUE OF YOUR INVESTMENT AND AIMCO’S FUTURE GROWTH PROSPECTS.

USE THE UNIVERSAL WHITE PROXY CARD TODAY TO VOTE FOR ALL THREE

OF AIMCO’S QUALIFIED AND EXPERIENCED DIRECTORS

The New Aimco Board is active, engaged and focused on continuing to grow Aimco and providing enhanced value for all our stockholders. We strongly recommend that stockholders vote FOR the Company’s three director nominees on the universal WHITE proxy card: Jay Paul Leupp, Michael A. Stein and R. Dary Stone.

Your vote “FOR” our director nominees will help ensure that you, as an Aimco stockholder, have a Board acting in your best interest at all times.

On behalf of the New Aimco Board, we appreciate your investment and support.

Sincerely,

The Aimco Board of Directors

3 TSR calculation as of September 30, 2022

4 Includes AHH, CLPR, CSR, FOR, FPH, HHC, IRT, JBGS, JOE, STRS, TRC, VRE, and WRE (per AIV 2021 10-K) represents simple average

If you have questions or require any assistance with voting your shares, please contact the Company’s proxy solicitor listed below:

MacKenzie Partners, Inc.

1407 Broadway, 27th Floor

New York, New York 10018

Call Collect: (212) 929-5500

or

Toll-Free (800) 322-2885

Email: proxy@mackenziepartners.com

Forward Looking Statements

This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements include all statements that are not historical statements of fact and those regarding our intent, belief, or expectations, including, but not limited to, the statements in this document regarding future financing plans, including the Company’s expected leverage and capital structure; business strategies, prospects, and projected operating and financial results (including earnings), including facts related thereto, such as expected costs; future share repurchases; expected investment opportunities; and our 2022 pipeline investments and projects. We caution investors not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements.

Words such as “anticipate(s),” “expect(s),” “intend(s),” “plan(s),” “believe(s),” “plan(s),” “may,” “will,” “would,” “could,” “should,” “seek(s),” “forecast(s),” and similar expressions, or the negative of these terms, are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, condition or results, and involve a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors, among others, that may affect actual results or outcomes include, but are not limited to: (i) the risk that the 2022 preliminary plans and goals may not be completed in a timely manner or at all, (ii) the inability to recognize the anticipated benefits of the pipeline investments and projects, and (iii) changes in general economic conditions, including as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although we believe that the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements, which are based on management’s expectations and estimates, are reasonable, we can give no assurance that our expectations will be attained.

Risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations include, but are not limited to: the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the Company’s business and on the global and U.S. economies generally; real estate and operating risks, including fluctuations in real estate values and the general economic climate in the markets in which we operate and competition for residents in such markets; national and local economic conditions, including the pace of job growth and the level of unemployment; the amount, location and quality of competitive new housing supply; the timing and effects of acquisitions, dispositions, redevelopments and developments; changes in operating costs, including energy costs; negative economic conditions in our geographies of operation; loss of key personnel; the Company’s ability to maintain current or meet projected occupancy, rental rate and property operating results; the Company’s ability to meet budgeted costs and timelines, and, if applicable, achieve budgeted rental rates related to redevelopment and development investments; expectations regarding sales of apartment communities and the use of proceeds thereof; the ability to successfully operate as two separate companies each with more narrowed focus; insurance risks, including the cost of insurance, and natural disasters and severe weather such as hurricanes; financing risks, including the availability and cost of financing; the risk that cash flows from operations may be insufficient to meet required payments of principal and interest; the risk that earnings may not be sufficient to maintain compliance with debt covenants, including financial coverage ratios; legal and regulatory risks, including costs associated with prosecuting or defending claims and any adverse outcomes; the terms of laws and governmental regulations that affect us and interpretations of those laws and regulations; possible environmental liabilities, including costs, fines or penalties that may be incurred due to necessary remediation of contamination of apartment communities presently or previously owned by the Company; activities by stockholder activists, including a proxy contest; the Company’s relationship with each other after the consummation of the business separation; the ability and willingness of the Company and their subsidiaries to meet and/or perform their obligations under any contractual arrangements that are entered into among the parties in connection with the business separation and any of their obligations to indemnify, defend and hold the other party harmless from and against various claims, litigation and liabilities; and the ability to achieve some or all the benefits that we expect to achieve from the business separation.

In addition, the Company’s current and continuing qualification as a real estate investment trust involves the application of highly technical and complex provisions of the Internal Revenue Code and depends on the Company’s ability to meet the various requirements imposed by the Internal Revenue Code, through actual operating results, distribution levels and diversity of stock ownership.

Readers should carefully review the Company’s financial statements and the notes thereto, as well as the section entitled “Risk Factors” in Item 1A of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021 and in Item 1A of the Company’s Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the quarterly periods ended March 31, 2022 and June 30, 2022, and the other documents the Company files from time to time with the SEC. These filings identify and address important risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

These forward-looking statements reflect management’s judgment as of this date, and the Company assumes no (and disclaims any) obligation to revise or update them to reflect future events or circumstances.

We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy of any projections, estimates, targets, statements or information contained in this document. It is understood and agreed that any such projections, estimates, targets, statements and information are not to be viewed as facts and are subject to significant business, financial, economic, operating, competitive and other risks, uncertainties and contingencies many of which are beyond our control, that no assurance can be given that any particular financial projections or targets will be realized, that actual results may differ from projected results and that such differences may be material. While all financial projections, estimates and targets are necessarily speculative, we believe that the preparation of prospective financial information involves increasingly higher levels of uncertainty the further out the projection, estimate or target extends from the date of preparation. The assumptions and estimates underlying the projected, expected or target results are inherently uncertain and are subject to a wide variety of significant business, economic and competitive risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the financial projections, estimates and targets. The inclusion of financial projections, estimates and targets in this presentation should not be regarded as an indication that we or our representatives, considered or consider the financial projections, estimates and targets to be a reliable prediction of future events.

Glossary and Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial and Operating Measures

This document includes certain financial and operating measures used by Aimco management that are not calculated in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States, or GAAP. Aimco’s definitions and calculations of these Non-GAAP financial and operating measures and other terms may differ from the definitions and methodologies used by other REITs and, accordingly, may not be comparable. These Non-GAAP financial and operating measures should not be considered an alternative to GAAP net income or any other GAAP measurement of performance and should not be considered an alternative measure of liquidity.

NET OPERATING INCOME (NOI) MARGIN: Represents an apartment community’s net operating income as a percentage of the apartment community’s rental and other property revenues.

PROPERTY NET OPERATING INCOME (NOI): NOI is defined by Aimco as total property rental and other property revenues less direct property operating expenses, including real estate taxes. NOI does not include: property management revenues, primarily from affiliates; casualties; property management expenses; depreciation; or interest expense. NOI is helpful because it helps both investors and management to understand the operating performance of real estate excluding costs associated with decisions about acquisition pricing, overhead allocations, and financing arrangements. NOI is also considered by many in the real estate industry to be a useful measure for determining the value of real estate. Reconciliations of NOI as presented in this document to Aimco’s consolidated GAAP amounts are provided below. Due to the diversity of its economic ownership interests in its apartment communities in the periods presented, Aimco evaluates the performance of the apartment communities in its segments using Property NOI, which represents the NOI for the apartment communities that Aimco consolidates and excludes apartment communities that it does not consolidate. Property NOI is defined as rental and other property revenue less property operating expenses. In its evaluation of community results, Aimco excludes utility cost reimbursement from rental and other property revenues and reflects such amount as a reduction of the related utility expense within property operating expenses. The following table presents the reconciliation of GAAP rental and other property revenue to the revenues before utility reimbursements and GAAP property operating expenses to expenses, net of utility reimbursements.

Segment NOI Reconciliation

Twelve Months Ended (in thousands)

December 31, 2021

December 31, 2020

Total Real Estate Operations

Revenues,

Before Utility

Reimbursements [1]

Expenses,

Net of Utility

Reimbursements

Revenues,

Before Utility

Reimbursements [1]

Expenses,

Net of Utility

Reimbursements

 
 

Total (per consolidated statements of operations)

$

169,836

 

$

67,613

 

$

151,451

 

$

61,514

 

 

Adjustment: Utilities reimbursement

 

(3,022

)

$

(3,022

)

 

(2,163

)

 

(2,163

)

 

Adjustment: Non-stabilized and other amounts not allocated [2]

 

(30,629

)

 

(21,158

)

 

(18,528

)

 

(17,676

)

 

Total Stabilized Operating (per Schedule 6)

$

136,185

 

$

43,433

 

$

130,760

 

$

41,675

 

 
 
 

Segment NOI Reconciliation

Three Months Ended (in thousands)

June 30, 2022

June 30, 2021

Total Real Estate Operations

Revenues,

Before Utility

Reimbursements [1]

Expenses,

Net of Utility

Reimbursements

Revenues,

Before Utility

Reimbursements [1]

Expenses,

Net of Utility

Reimbursements

 
 

Total (per consolidated statements of operations)

$

50,697

 

$

19,708

 

$

40,418

 

$

16,403

 

 

Adjustment: Utilities reimbursement

 

(1,347

)

 

(1,347

)

 

(1,128

)

 

(1,128

)

 

Adjustment: Assets Held for Sale

 

(1,823

)

$

568

 

 

(1,798

)

 

634

 

 

Adjustment: Other Real Estate

 

(4,383

)

$

1,317

 

 

(3,138

)

 

1,090

 

 

Adjustment: Non-stabilized and other amounts not allocated [2]

 

(10,040

)

 

(9,825

)

 

(4,589

)

 

(7,056

)

 

Total Stabilized Operating (per Schedule 6)

$

33,104

 

$

10,420

 

$

29,765

 

$

9,943

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

Segment NOI Reconciliation

Six Months Ended (in thousands)

June 30, 2022

June 30, 2021

Total Real Estate Operations

Revenues,

Before Utility

Reimbursements [1]

Expenses,

Net of Utility

Reimbursements

Revenues,

Before Utility

Reimbursements [1]

Expenses,

Net of Utility

Reimbursements

 
 

Total (per consolidated statements of operations)

$

100,691

 

$

38,929

 

$

80,222

 

$

33,345

 

 

Adjustment: Utilities reimbursement

 

(2,903

)

 

(2,903

)

 

(2,473

)

 

(2,473

)

 

Adjustment: Assets Held for Sale

 

(3,628

)

 

1,159

 

 

(3,503

)

 

1,265

 

 

Adjustment: Other Real Estate

 

(9,378

)

 

(2,822

)

 

(6,324

)

 

(2,127

)

 

Adjustment: Non-stabilized and other amounts not allocated [2]

 

(19,455

)

 

(13,696

)

 

(8,903

)

 

(9,871

)

 

Total Stabilized Operating (per Schedule 6)

$

65,327

 

$

20,667

 

$

59,018

 

$

20,139

 

[1] Approximately two-thirds of Aimco’s utility costs are reimbursed by residents. These reimbursements are included in rental and other property revenues on Aimco’s consolidated statements of operations prepared in accordance with GAAP. This adjustment represents the reclassification of utility reimbursements from revenues to property operating expenses for the purpose of evaluating segment results and as presented on Supplemental Schedule 6. Aimco also excludes the reimbursement amounts from the calculation of Average Revenue per Apartment Home throughout this Earnings Release and Supplemental Schedules.

[2] Properties not included in the Stabilized Operating Portfolio and other amounts not allocated includes operating results of properties not presented in the Stabilized Operation Portfolio as presented on Supplemental Schedule 6 during the periods shown, as well as property management and casualty expense, which are not included in property operating expenses, net of utility reimbursements in the Supplemental Schedule 6 presentation.

About Aimco

Aimco is a diversified real estate company primarily focused on value add, opportunistic, and alternative investments, targeting the U.S. multifamily sector. Aimco’s mission is to make real estate investments where outcomes are enhanced through its human capital so that substantial value is created for investors, teammates, and the communities in which we operate. Aimco is traded on the New York Stock Exchange as AIV. For more information about Aimco, please visit its website www.aimco.com.

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Labor Hoarding Could be Good News for the Economy

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PROVO, Utah — Chad Pritchard and his colleagues are trying everything to staff their pizza shop and bistro, and as they do, they have turned to a new tactic: They avoid firing employees at all costs.

Infractions that previously would have led to a quick dismissal no longer do at the chef’s two places, Fat Daddy’s Pizzeria and Bistro Provenance. Consistent transportation issues have ceased to be a deal breaker. Workers who show up drunk these days are sent home to sober up.

Employers in Provo, a college town at the base of the Rocky Mountains where unemployment is near the lowest in the nation at 1.9 percent, have no room to lose workers. Bistro Provenance, which opened in September, has been unable to hire enough employees to open for lunch at all, or for dinner on Sundays and Mondays. The workers it has are often new to the industry, or young: On a recent Wednesday night, a 17-year-old could be found torching a crème brûlée.

Down the street, Mr. Pritchard’s pizza shop is now relying on an outside cleaner to help his thin staff tidy up. And up and down the wide avenue that separates the two restaurants, storefronts display “Help Wanted” signs or announce that the businesses have had to temporarily reduce their hours.

added 263,000 workers in September, fewer than in recent months but more than was normal before the pandemic. Unemployment is at 3.5 percent, matching the lowest level in 50 years, and average hourly earnings picked up at a solid 5 percent clip compared with a year earlier.

roughly 20 percent and sent unemployment to above 10 percent. Few economists expect an outcome that severe this time since today’s inflation burst has been shorter-lived and rates are not expected to climb nearly as much.

are still nearly two open jobs for every unemployed worker — companies may be hesitant to believe that any uptick in worker availability will last.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty about how big of a downturn are we facing,” said Benjamin Friedrich, an associate professor of strategy at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. “You kind of want to be ready when opportunities arise. The way I think about labor hoarding is, it has option value.”

Instead of firing, businesses may look for other ways to trim costs. Mr. Pritchard in Provo and his business partner, Janine Coons, said that if business fell off, their first resort would be to cut hours. Their second would be taking pay cuts themselves. Firing would be a last resort.

The pizzeria didn’t lay off workers during the pandemic, but Mr. Pritchard and Ms. Coons witnessed how punishing it can be to hire — and since all of their competitors have been learning the same lesson, they do not expect them to let go of their employees easily even if demand pulls back.

“People aren’t going to fire people,” Mr. Pritchard said.

But economists warned that what employers think they will do before a slowdown and what they actually do when they start to experience financial pain could be two different things.

The idea that a tight labor market may leave businesses gun-shy about layoffs is untested. Some economists said that they could not recall any other downturn where employers broadly resisted culling their work force.

“It would be a pretty notable change to how employers responded in the past,” said Nick Bunker, director of North American economic research for the career site Indeed.

And even if they do not fire their full-time employees, companies have been making increased use of temporary or just-in-time help in recent months. Gusto, a small-business payroll and benefits platform, conducted an analysis of its clients and found that the ratio of contractors per employee had increased more than 60 percent since 2019.

If the economy slows, gigs for those temporary workers could dry up, prompting them to begin searching for full-time jobs — possibly causing unemployment or underemployment to rise even if nobody is officially fired.

Policymakers know a soft landing is a long shot. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, acknowledged during his last news conference that the Fed’s own estimate of how much unemployment might rise in a downturn was a “modest increase in the unemployment rate from a historical perspective, given the expected decline in inflation.”

But he also added that “we see the current situation as outside of historical experience.”

The reasons for hope extend beyond labor hoarding. Because job openings are so unusually high right now, policymakers hope that workers can move into available positions even if some firms do begin layoffs as the labor market slows. Companies that have been desperate to hire for months — like Utah State Hospital in Provo — may swoop in to pick up anyone who is displaced.

Dallas Earnshaw and his colleagues at the psychiatric hospital have been struggling mightily to hire enough nurse’s aides and other workers, though raising pay and loosening recruitment standards have helped around the edges. Because he cannot hire enough people to expand in needed ways, Mr. Earnshaw is poised to snap up employees if the labor market cools.

“We’re desperate,” Mr. Earnshaw said.

But for the moment, workers remain hard to find. At the bistro and pizza shop in downtown Provo, what worries Mr. Pritchard is that labor will become so expensive that — combined with rapid ingredient inflation — it will be hard or impossible to make a profit without lifting prices on pizzas or prime rib so much that consumers cannot bear the change.

“What scares me most is not the economic slowdown,” he said. “It’s the hiring shortage that we have.”

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Media Advisory: Lea County State Bank and FHLB Dallas to Award $16K to Affordable Housing Nonprofit

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HOBBS, N.M.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Lea County State Bank and the Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas (FHLB Dallas) will award $16,000 in Partnership Grant Program (PGP) funds to Habitat for Humanity of Hobbs, New Mexico Area (Hobbs Habitat). Hobbs Habitat provides affordable mortgages and uses volunteers to help homeowners build their own homes. The funds will be awarded at a ceremonial check presentation Thursday, October 13. Media is encouraged to attend.

PGP grants are awarded annually through FHLB Dallas’ member institutions to help promote and strengthen relationships between community-based organizations and FHLB Dallas members. FHLB Dallas provides up to a 3:1 match of member contributions from $500 to $4,000 to provide up to $12,000 in matched funding.

Hobbs Habitat will use the grant for contractual services to develop a new subdivision that includes 14 homes to be sold to families at cost. Hobbs Habitat also plans to use funds for new office equipment.

WHAT:

Check presentation for Habitat for Humanity of Hobbs

 

WHEN:

11:00 a.m. Thursday, October 13, 2022

 

WHO:

Dickie Wall, Senior Vice President, Lea County State Bank

Alfonso Cisneros, Vice President, Lea County State Bank and Board Member, Habitat For Humanity of Hobbs

Richard Sanchez, Executive Director, Habitat for Humanity of Hobbs New Mexico Area

Kathie Wiseman, Administrative Assistant, Habitat for Humanity of Hobbs New Mexico Area

Melanie Dill, Community and Economic Development Product Manager, FHLB Dallas

 

WHERE:

Offices of Habitat for Humanity of Hobbs New Mexico Area

301 E. Navajo Drive, Hobbs, NM 88240

 

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